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 Post subject: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:05 am 
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As a 25+ year controller and 20 at ZOA which controlled 11% of the earths surface I'm very familiar with oceanic tracks, procedures and ATC radar. I have to agree with this scenario.
I'm sure this will stir things up around here...

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Chuck (running for cover...)


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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:46 am 
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Good read: as a former military and civil controller this is feasible however would require some formal military training to conceive and then implement. Too much chance in the timings for it to be implemented, I think. Doing an intercept on another jet at night-time without an air-air radar or a radar vector from ground or AWACS is problematic.

I was a controller for three years at RAAF Butterworth base at the centre of this event. There is a large air defence radar there which is what I've understood did the tracking. Normally "Off hours" the screens are watched by junior plotters as distinct from Air Defence officers...


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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:12 am 
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I think this scenario is totally plausible, if not likely.

I know of an instance where 3 military fighters did the same thing to break through military systems during War Games.

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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:15 am 
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Fascinating! I would echo the comment suggesting that under the circumstances intercepting SQ68 is a most difficult flight problem. However, once located, MH370 (flying without beacons) could have followed SQ68 visually by watching its beacons - from something like the five-o'clock low position (as viewed from SQ68). The crew of SQ would have no indication MH370 was there - the other aircraft, being behind and below, would not be visible and would not be creating turbulence. Also, MH370 would have to know which air traffic control frequency SQ was assigned en route, so it could monitor and anticipate. Personally I'm not clear on how challenging it would be to determine which frequency was in use initially. Maybe Mr. Ledgerwood could comment on that.

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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 8:28 am 
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The same idea was used in "Sky Fighters" (2005)http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0421974/ in a smaller, more tactical, fashion.

Aside from being a very pretty film to watch, it shows that the concept, at least is, well known.

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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:14 am 
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Another presented here:
https://plus.google.com/app/basic/strea ... z3vdhbop04


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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:09 pm 
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Yes I saw this independently as well. However, the question remains: if the aircraft was disabled by fire sufficient to incapacitate the pilots completely, is it possible for the aircraft to continue flying on autopilot with an ongoing fire for some six additional hours? This doesn't seem too likely to me. One would think the autopilot would become disabled in a much shorter time. Therefore - in my mind - the shadowing idea proposed by Ledgerwood is more likely; however, that scenario assumes a lot of very sophisticated planning and execution.

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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:51 pm 
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F4U-4 wrote:
As a 25+ year controller and 20 at ZOA which controlled 11% of the earths surface I'm very familiar with oceanic tracks, procedures and ATC radar. I have to agree with this scenario.
I'm sure this will stir things up around here...

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Chuck (running for cover...)



Two points.

1. Preposterous on a multitude of levels. The author, a self avowed, "hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast," obviously has no clue as to how difficult a night rejoin like that would be.

2. It's called Warbird Information Exchange for a reason.

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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:00 pm 
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Ok, Here's another angle that I haven't seen covered yet. How much fuel did they take?
I have refueled quite a few airliners and such, including a few 777's.....Typically you might have a "standard" load to fly to say, Beijing... but the crew can and will often request more based on weather, route, etc.....Basically it is a bit abnormal to take alot extra, due to most airlines wanting to save fuel and cost..... So, did they take a "normal" fuel load, or did they request a bit more?......


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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:32 pm 
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The airwaves seem to be full of complicated conspiracy "theories", that sometimes involve an additional airplane or secret runway. Employment of Occam's Razor (simple explanations are more likely) yields the kind of answers that conspiracists abhor: the single demented gunman.

I think this has a fairly simple explanation: A pilot/copilot who wanted to achieve maximal notoriety or government discomfort by a pure and total disappearance. So, gain sole control from the other pilot (with altitude drifting to higher than 40K to near 20K feet during the fight), then once in control disengage communication and steer to the most remote place (central Indian Ocean).

I would guess that the pilot made a water landing that would maximize chances that most of the floatables would sink inside the fuselage. The media has not yet asked whether the pilot might have been able to depressurize the passenger area; in all liklihood the passengers and stewardesses would have been oblivious to their danger. Since the black box will record only the last two hours of flight, even if found the true cause will be unexplained. There is a good chance the plane will not be found, as this is a big ocean with a geologically young and rugged bottom, not covered by a great depth of ocean sediment (which is that location would consist mostly of microorganism skeletons).

A question: why this talk of conspiracy "theories" when I for one have yet to hear anything more than a hypothesis.

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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:22 pm 
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The problem with the two plane theory is that it would require coordination on the other airliners part.

Here's my thoughts: Plane was deliberately taken off course by one of the pilots, who incapacitated the other crew members. Upon discovering their plane had been hijacked, passengers attempt a Flight 93-style takeover of the cockpit. They successfully breach the cockpit and take control of the plane, but have no idea how to restart the communications and navigation systems. The plane continued to fly on aimlessly until it runs out of fuel and goes into the Indian Ocean.


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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:39 pm 
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I'm certainly no pilot and make no claim of any expertise in the field, but this theory seems as plausible as any to me. Not as glamorous as terrorists, suicidal pilots, or alien abductions unfortunately..

SN

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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:52 pm 
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If there was a fire, why wouldn't the pilots have taken a few moments to send a distress call before switching off all electrical devices? It only took 11 minutes for the Swissair MD-11 to go down from when the fire started. A plane couldn't possibly fly for hours with a serious onboard fire. Also, if the plane flew for hours on autopilot then the explanation that all the breakers were pulled or there was a total electrical malfunction doesn't make sense.


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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:13 pm 
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Craig59 wrote:
F4U-4 wrote:
As a 25+ year controller and 20 at ZOA which controlled 11% of the earths surface I'm very familiar with oceanic tracks, procedures and ATC radar. I have to agree with this scenario.
I'm sure this will stir things up around here...

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68

Chuck (running for cover...)



Two points.

1. Preposterous on a multitude of levels. The author, a self avowed, "hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast," obviously has no clue as to how difficult a night rejoin like that would be.

2. It's called Warbird Information Exchange for a reason.



Hard yes, but for a pilot with military training especially one who has flown large cargo planes in close formation at night it wouldn't be impossible. Chances are the original flight crew wasn't behind this and an agent of a foreign power or a terrorist organisation was behind this. This causes me to ask the question of why take a plane with 239 pax and make it disappear? If it was for ransom they would have spoke out by now and a terrorist would have run it into something not flown it out to sea and crash it. Something is fishy here that's for sure. An off the wall theory could be the Iranians stole it to make copies of it like the Russian did with the B-29 as the Iranian airlines fleet is ancient and no one will sell them new planes. Or the North Koreans stole it so that their "glorious leader" could have a new plane. Off the wall theories but they make the same amount of sense as flying a jet out to sea to ditch.


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 Post subject: Re: MH370 scenario...
PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 11:19 pm 
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SaxMan wrote:
The problem with the two plane theory is that it would require coordination on the other airliners part.

Here's my thoughts: Plane was deliberately taken off course by one of the pilots, who incapacitated the other crew members. Upon discovering their plane had been hijacked, passengers attempt a Flight 93-style takeover of the cockpit. They successfully breach the cockpit and take control of the plane, but have no idea how to restart the communications and navigation systems. The plane continued to fly on aimlessly until it runs out of fuel and goes into the Indian Ocean.

They would still have a compass point it at N and sooner or later you'll hit land someone with even basic flying skills would know this. Or use a phone to get a GPS loc I was flying back from a island a few years back and was curious to where we were so I turned on my phone and after 5 min my phone had found where I was over 1000 miles from land.


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