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Classic Wings Magazine WWII Naval Aviation Research Pacific Luftwaffe Resource Center
When Hollywood Ruled The Skies - Volumes 1 through 4 by Bruce Oriss


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:27 pm 
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Saville wrote:
C VEICH wrote:

My point being that when these aircraft are no longer flying and are reduced to being just static artifacts, then there will be no disconnect because, I suspect, authenticity/originality will be the determining factor when it comes to value.



Why do you make the assumption that these planes (and others) won't be flying 20, 50, 100 years from now?


You are starting to see some museums now scale back their flight operations now, in present time. I can see some 100th anniversary flights happening in the early 2040's...but after that....the glory days of the warbird movement will be long past.


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:58 pm 
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JohnB wrote:
Saville wrote:
Why do you make the assumption that these planes (and others) won't be flying 20, 50, 100 years from now?


I can't speak for C VEICH, but as I said above, my guess will be lack of AVGAS. Listen to some politicians, they want only electric cars in 20-25 years.
Good luck trying to get the very small supply of AVGAS needed for warbirds 50-100 years from now.

You can have rich collectors, teams of expert mechanic and restorers, but no one will have a refinery in their pocket. Even the Vulcan group doesn't have that kind of money. And if they did, the environmental lobby won't allow it.

Whenever I hear the subject of warbirds being grounded due to lack of avgas, I always think of the classic steam trains around the world that are still running. I know that some of them have been converted to oil fired boilers, but my understanding (and I am not an expert on the classic train scene by any means) is that there are plenty that are still running on coal. If steam trains that are 50+ years older than warbirds are still running on an older and even more polluting fuel than avgas, I don't foresee any problems for a while.

However, this discussion has gone a bit off the rails (hehe), so to get back on topic:
Mark Allen M wrote:
Noha307 wrote:
It really bothers me that this discussion is dominated by money and market value.

Don't stress it. Most all discussions related to this topic eventually end up that way.

I appreciate you saying that, thanks.

I just get frustrated because there are other factors that need to be considered (and I would argue are actually more important), but they always get ignored when money comes up. The talk always devolves into a relativism where there is no possible objective truth in the matter since value is in the eye of the beholder.

Mark Allen M wrote:
However, I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you are most likely referring to an already completed airframe and that money would never change it's designation.

You're right, I was only referring to already completed airframes. Looking back at what I wrote, I realize that I could have been clearer about that (if I had thought of it). The way money affects how projects are completed is a very good point I hadn't considered, though.

To clarify, money has an effect on how reproduction/replica projects are completed in the sense that it determines how many original components may be used, but once it is assembled just because it is worth more doesn't actually make it more original.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 7:08 pm 
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Noha307 wrote:

However, this discussion has gone a bit off the rails (hehe)


Yes, I apologize for that Noha307. :drink3:
I do appreciate the topic, it is a confusing one, especially if one has a horse in the race as it were.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 10:59 pm 
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Okay..one more time. :lol:

If all cars are electric, and jets run on JET A fuel, I don't see a refinery switching over to make a miniscule amount of AVGAS...gasoline/avgas is very different than kerosene/jet fuel.

At that point, it's not a pollution issue (so the dirty coal-powered locomotive currently being allowed by regulators isn't an apt analogy) rather it's an INFRASTRUCTURE issue.
Anyone can dig coal.
But no one, not even the Collings, Kermit or Paul Allen's collection has an oil refinery.

And I'm not sure a working refinery will make the effort to convert for a day or two to making AVGAS. (Remember every year, had prices go higher for awhile while refineries are shut to convert from winter blend has to summer blend? Same basic issue.)

If they do convert to do a run of AVGAS...whether it be the current LL or the future mandated no-lead, the economy of scale will be out of wack, so the price of a gallon will be sky-high.

And if it is the proposed No Lead, can anyone get a Merlin or Allison to run on it? Or JET A?

Once Roush or some other Merlin specialist has a mod that allows an old high performance piston aero engine to run on jet fuel, (or gets an STC to add a Mr. Fusion to warbirds like the DeLorean in the Back to the Future films) I'll quit worrying.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 1:49 am 
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This fuels and their continued viability discussion has noth8 g to do with authenticity or originality in any way. We aren’t arguing wether or not there will be fuels, but somehow again we have gone there.

In my mind the amount of small independent oil producers will be a significant part of future operations should the big producers drop off or stop production. Those small producers can make all the difference. I am sure Mr. Lewis for example has access to several refineries.

Electricity will not be able to move a commercial aircraft any usable distance for the foreseeable future. Perhaps never. Batteries improved 500 percent from where they are today will not power an aircraft. To think that there will not be fuel for Jets is simply ridiculous. Like AOC speech material. Warbirds can be legislated away, but there will always be fuel is some quantity. It may cost more, but it will be around. :spit

Authenticity and the discussions on “correct” need not to concern themselves with fuel unavailability...if you build it...they will come and sell you some.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:41 am 
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Somehow this post drifted to a discussion in fossil fuels
Any chance we can get back on topic ?
It was an interesting discussion

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:57 am 
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A category other than replica, reproduction, re-manufacture according to the FAA would be simply "repaired":

Returning a destroyed or scrapped aircraft to service. Destroyed aircraft are
sometimes approved for return to service after the replacement of all primary structures. In
contrast to a new aircraft manufactured from new certified parts under an FAA production
approval, the reconstruction of a destroyed aircraft typically includes used and new replacement
parts from various sources.

Aircraft repairability determined on an individual aircraft basis. Because of the
complexity of aircraft designs and the widely differing conditions of aircraft subjected to
accidents or natural disasters, it is impossible to have one set of criteria define the limits of
repairing an aircraft to an airworthy condition.

An aircraft that has been damaged to the extent
that an inspector or accident investigator has declared it destroyed must be evaluated on a case by-case basis to determine its repairability. Due to the lack of regulatory specificity, any determination that an aircraft is destroyed can be subjective and may be challenged by other
parties with an interest in repairing the aircraft.

Repairs of aircraft declared destroyed or scrapped. If requested by the owner of an
aircraft that has been declared destroyed or scrapped, a FSDO or ACO may assist the owner in
determining if the aircraft may be repaired to an airworthy condition. The owner is responsible
for developing a repair scheme for the FSDO/ACO to review and approve (see detailed
instructions in Chapter 4, paragraph 4 of this order). It may, however, not be possible to
certificate an aircraft with its original identification if that aircraft has previously been declared
destroyed or scrapped and the aircraft’s identification plate and records are no longer available.

From:

https://www.faa.gov/documentLibrary/med ... 100.19.pdf

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:40 am 
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Quote:
I can see some 100th anniversary flights happening in the early 2040's...but after that....the glory days of the warbird movement will be long past.


The glory days of the civil war are long past, no? Yet there are still tens of thousands of reenactors.

Quote:
And if it is the proposed No Lead, can anyone get a Merlin or Allison to run on it?


They already have that capability. The lead is used in Avgas to inexpensively boost the octane. The valves shouldn't need it because the seats are hardened inserts. Additives are available in any case. Warbirds seem to have fared quite well since the demise of 115/145.

The EAA has had an STC for general aviation aircraft use of unleaded auto gas for decades. Some airports even sell it. The problem is that you cannot use the blended fuel that includes alcohol due to concerns with vapor lock.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:42 am 
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bdk wrote:
Quote:
I can see some 100th anniversary flights happening in the early 2040's...but after that....the glory days of the warbird movement will be long past.


The glory days of the civil war are long past, no? Yet there are still tens of thousands of reenactors.



You're comparing apples/oranges. There will always be people fascinated with history. When we start talking warbird flight operations....individuals/groups who possess both 1) the collective interest and 2) the means to be able to get out there and fly these historic artifacts are very few.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:58 am 
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menards wrote:
bdk wrote:
Quote:
I can see some 100th anniversary flights happening in the early 2040's...but after that....the glory days of the warbird movement will be long past.


The glory days of the civil war are long past, no? Yet there are still tens of thousands of reenactors.



You're comparing apples/oranges. There will always be people fascinated with history. When we start talking warbird flight operations....individuals/groups who possess both 1) the collective interest and 2) the means to be able to get out there and fly these historic artifacts are very few.



sailing ships stopped being the main mode of sea transport and commerce over 100 years ago. Yet you can still get square riggers and schooners built - out of wood - and sails sewn even though the square rigger market is tiny.

re-enactors use flint or caplock muskets, and not M-16's, and you can buy those muskets easily today as well as uniforms and accoutrements.

If you want to do some Cowboy Action Shooting you can buy a Winchester '73 and Colt 45 very easily and they make up a tiny fraction of the firearms market.

It used to be that only governments could afford to design and build rockets and put people in space and now it's within the financial capabilities of rich people.

buggies went out as he main form of transportation in NYC over 100 years ago but you can still buy them and run them in cities.

No one uses horses as main transport yet there are lots of horse farms....

There are loads of examples.

If people want to fly P-51's in 2040, 60 or 80 they will because unless there's a collapse of civilization worldwide there will be the money to make the gas if there's the desire to fly the plane. I think it is impossible to absolutely state there will be a demise of the flying replica/reproductions.

And as this is a deviation from the main topic, this will be my last post on this sub-topic.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:59 pm 
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Quote:

You're comparing apples/oranges. There will always be people fascinated with history. When we start talking warbird flight operations....individuals/groups who possess both 1) the collective interest and 2) the means to be able to get out there and fly these historic artifacts are very few.



sailing ships stopped being the main mode of sea transport and commerce over 100 years ago. Yet you can still get square riggers and schooners built - out of wood - and sails sewn even though the square rigger market is tiny.

re-enactors use flint or caplock muskets, and not M-16's, and you can buy those muskets easily today as well as uniforms and accoutrements.

If you want to do some Cowboy Action Shooting you can buy a Winchester '73 and Colt 45 very easily and they make up a tiny fraction of the firearms market.

It used to be that only governments could afford to design and build rockets and put people in space and now it's within the financial capabilities of rich people.

buggies went out as he main form of transportation in NYC over 100 years ago but you can still buy them and run them in cities.

No one uses horses as main transport yet there are lots of horse farms....

There are loads of examples.

If people want to fly P-51's in 2040, 60 or 80 they will because unless there's a collapse of civilization worldwide there will be the money to make the gas if there's the desire to fly the plane. I think it is impossible to absolutely state there will be a demise of the flying replica/reproductions.

And as this is a deviation from the main topic, this will be my last post on this sub-topic.[/quote]

Again apples/oranges...

It wouldn't take a collapse of civilization....how about the stroke of a pen from the powers that be ending the ride program? No FAA ride program would permanently ground a number of warbirds who rely on that revenue stream.... further limitations on available fuels, as previously discussed.... availability of parts, availability of qualified pilots...the list goes on.....

Yes you can play cowboy or civil war reenact-er on the weekend for no training and limited capital commitment. You want to fly a P-51? Private Pilot Certificate Training, Tail wheel endorsement training, 100+ hours in a tail wheel trainer.... 100+ hours in a T-6 .... P-51 Transition training...and you still probably wont find anyone who will let you fly their airplane... So keep training and building time for decades....

As state previously, there are a lot of museums that have significantly scaled back their flying programs. By 2040-2050 most of these current flying examples will be static displays.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:04 pm 
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With the continuing advancements in battery technology and circuitry, how long until we see a converted electric Mustang? pop2

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 5:31 am 
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Quote:
With the continuing advancements in battery technology and circuitry, how long until we see a converted electric Mustang?


That would be some battery, and the gorilla in the room that electricity advocates don't mention is that our electricity presently comes from fossil fuel (about equally coal and natural gas in the US). There is not enough land area (and other resources) for wind/solar to entirely replace fossil fuels (FF) as producers of our electricity. (yes, I can do the math)

There are two major reasons why fossil fuel use is going to change markedly in the not-distant future. The first is that we are now essentially at the top of the "peak oil" curve. I know there are plenty of people on this forum who will likely argue against this, but FF is a limited resource, and there is a mathematics to that. We should be seeing significantly diminished oil supplies pretty soon, likely in 2020s. I know you can go online and find people talking about 2050 or 2100, but there is math to this that says something much sooner.

My second point will also bring out the naysayers: Global Warming is real, and the ramifications are potentially far worse than generally understood. I speak as one who studies the plankton in the oceans. There is a reasonable possibility that lower pH will create conditions where the calcareous nannoplankton (base of the ocean food chain) will be unable to build skeletons. Say 'goodbye' to seafood.

I think the first reason above will drive changes in the near future more than the second. It may not be so much higher cost that drives historic aircraft flights out of the market, as decisions made at the government level once there is insufficient oil availability for the military and economy. I would assume that there would still be an Indianapolis-500, likely using vastly different engines/motors, but a lot of the other races would disappear. I suppose you might actually be seeing famous "drivers" who win video-game races, but that is getting further off topic.

The point is that I think bigger changes are coming than people realize, and perhaps coming quicker than people can imagine.

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:53 am 
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Lon Moer wrote:
With the continuing advancements in battery technology and circuitry, how long until we see a converted electric Mustang? pop2


Electric aircraft? probably not. Could see some new-build replica mustang airframes get turbine power conversions....or somebody develops a Jet-A Piston V-12

The future of GA piston power plants is right here...

https://www.continentalmotors.aero/dies ... gines.aspx


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:34 am 
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Horses are the ultimate transportation device because they resist theft when properly trained and also can be raced using environmentally sensitive modifications and training methods.

I believe social media is the best use of technology for transmitting ideas to your friends. Growing your contact list is something we should all consider when it comes to promoting a business.

Captain Kangaroo was a really good TV show that should still be on the air. If it can’t be, we should have a Captain Kangeroo Court show to help kids with legal issues that arise on the playground.

To add to this discussion, Does anyone have any favorite vegetables we can talk about in this thread titled REPRODUCTION vs. REPLICA ? (That said, I cannot abide Lima beans).


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