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PostPosted: Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:46 pm 
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Quote:
You will see me wearing a black polo shirt and a black windbreaker each with the Stratus Project logo. That is all I have to show for my association with Stratus, no $239,000 like Ric, just two items of clothing. Colin offered to reimburse me for my airfare to Ireland to meet with him in February 2013, which seemed reasonable since I believed, then, that he had raised money from others to support Stratus. I then found out that all the money for the project had come out of Colin't own pocket so I didn't accept the reimbursement so I am out one round trip airfare from Los Angeles to Ireland, I count this as my contribution to Stratus.

As to transparency about Status' theory, just look at those almost 2,000 posts of mine on TIGHAR. (1,624 posts on the new TIGHAR forum in 2011 and 2012 and several hundred on the old forum in 2002 and 2003.) I have been saying the same thing since 2002, they crashed into the sea north of Howland under the cloudy area reported by Itasca. Let me say it again, they crashed into the sea north of Howland under the cloudy area reported by Itasca. is that clear enough? Oh, and look at my website too, https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/


As to Stratus asking for confidentiality, the only thing we are keeping secret is the exact spot on that big ocean that I think is the best place to start the search. You're right, we don't want others to be convinced by my analysis and send their ship to that spot. Can you blame us? Stratus is trying to raise money to send its own research ship to start a search there (I don't know how successful this effort will be) but I would certainly like the aircraft to be found (by somebody) and would really like it to be based on my analysis.
So I really don't see any valid comparison with TIGHAR.
gl


That's all nice. Of course I don't blame you for protecting your 'site'.

With all the positives you seem to have to offer, why are you engaged in such a negative campaign against TIGHAR / Gillespie? Why not focus on promoting Stratus if these points are solid? I appreciate your tone here, so obviously it is in you to promote positively - but it is unseemly for you to bank on pulling TIGHAR down as you often do. Why not simply ignore TIGHAR?

Who wouldn't like to have their theory validated by the find - more power to you. But in the end I'm sure it is not that altruistic, Gary - "no free lunch" - you guys are asking for OPM in the publicly supported venue by seeking not for profit status, yet no doubt there will no doubt be profits at some point and in some form if you are successful - all leveraged by the product of tax-benefitted donations made under 'not for profit'. And what of interim operating costs such as livelihood should you and Colin become successful in launching the mission and need to attend to that - will neither of you take a salary as Gillespie does?

Those things are not necessarily crimes in the least, of course - but for the public to have confidence it may help to understand your philosophy and plans thus. We've seen Gillespie live full time out of the TIGHAR till and one can argue as to value all day long, I suppose. Are you in effect saying that you nor Cobb would ever accept a quarter million windfall should you raise a couple or three million in a year to launch a search and busy yourselves making that happen? I'm just curious and like to know those things before buying a fat package or even a hat, probably.

Of course if you and Cobb are going to forego compensation and accept only costs, etc. to get it done and pray for a shot at a book, story rights, etc. later, more power to you and my hat's off.

Just curious, Gary - and I think those things are important where a seeking of 'not for profit' status are concerned - especially from you since you've had much to say about that and how TIGHAR has managed. BTW, that is NOT in defense of TIGHAR - it is simply a hard-nosed consumer curiosity that ought to apply to anyone considering a significant donation to something like Stratus IMO. It is also NOT a personal attack or accusation against you or Colin - but you yourself have made quite a watermark in this industry as a 'consumer advocate', so balance seems in order.

All the best -

_________________
Jeff Neville

Makin' smoke... where are you lady???


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 12:58 am 
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Jeffrey Neville wrote:
Thanks Viper and I'm not concerned with your affiliation or not, was just commenting on your persistence in speaking up for Stratus. That implies a favorable connection - which is of course fine and would be your judgment, no quarrel there.

I am far from satisfied with Gary's 'answer' as it is NO answer at all to my points. I would be happy for Gary to submit a definitive thesis on his view of how he came to have such confidence in where the flight ended - SANS DETAILS of WHERE he believes the search should center, of course: I respect the proprietary nature of that detail. If Gary would do so, I can provide a suitable review and response soon enough. The point is not limited to navigational ability, of which I realize Gary has plenty - but as to other aspects that attend such as his logic as to 'just what Noonan would have done' given so many variables that are really not knowable.

So much for the technical end. The business end remains at loose ends as far as I am concerned, except for the moment to conclude that I wouldn't send a dime to Stratus because they look like a baseball cap emporium selling yet another open-ended promise. For all I can tell it is nothing more than a carnival ride.

But, if the 'big dogs' get inside, pay up and like it, more power to them. I just hope Stratus can stand the bleating that will follow about "OPM" once, if Stratus truly does become "not for profit", the little guys out here start seeing Cobb as a taker and a mission or two fails and a big donor gets disgruntled, etc. Better they should clarify now and perhaps generate a bit more credibility - if they can.

I do have Gary to thank in large degree for opening my eyes as to being more of a devil's advocate where all these 'enterprises' are concerned. I'm just not so sure that he's noticed how much glass is in the house he moved into, since of course he believes in his own position most fully.

If I had to bet on any one of those you mention, two stand out -

Long would get my vote as the most professional and genteel. If he ever asked the public for a dime I'm not aware of it - I think his efforts were privately funded, and he very thoroughly put his full rationale into clear print and has been a reserved, worthy gentleman through-out.

Billings is hands-down the little guy who put his own wad into his own idea and took the lumps as they came; he's irascible in defending himself against criticism - at times to the point of splitting my sides, and at others... well, even cartoons have a limit... but hey, I didn't drop $80K of my own money on what he did and have to see criticism dropped on my head from a bully pulpit, either.

NEITHER gets a vote from me as "most likely to succeed" however -

I now believe it will be an absolute MIRACLE if Earhart is ever found by ANY of these many efforts. It is far more likely, I believe, given the time that has passed and the enormity and complexity of the environment that she disappeared in, that she's gone from human eyes forever, barring some accidental find one day. My view on this stands whether it was Gardner, the open sea, or near any number of other sea mounts or islands.

That, I now believe, is the core consumer message: caveat emptor - she's well and truly lost in a very difficult area without a single witness or piece of tangible, provable evidence left behind.

As to Stratus, etc. -

I do admire Gary for his abilities as a navigator. I do not believe Gary can channel Noonan well enough (at all, really) to pinpoint a flight terminus any better than, for example, Long did. One thing that is bothersome is that Fred himself was lost that day, too...

I also deeply admire Long. Gary has flown open oceans and navigated on the fly - but Long had a true career of it. The man trained as a navigator on Boeing 314 Clippers - the next generation behind Noonan, so this gentleman who skippered 747's across the Pacific for a career and flew the girth of the earth in a Navajo - including flying an approach to Howland Island, can nearly touch Noonan's outstretched hand in terms of context of understanding, time and ability. Long was the first to make good use of inertial navigation at the poles, apparently. That's not for the weak-hearted or one who lacks navigational acumen in the largest degree.

I do also admire the spirit in Gary's pursuit - but I am concerned at the high-gloss appeal I see coming from Stratus - whom he is affililiated with (his picture there is in the Titanic's dry dock, home of Stratus), which is yet another intended "not for profit" entity. Not for profit too often shields a device for high salaries and / or big prospects for it's principles if a find is made, etc., while little guys fund. So further to Gary's own sterling principles of holding an entity - like TIGHAR, accountable, I believe Stratus has some things it ought to share if they want public confidence.

I'll close by qualifying that comment about 'little guys' money -

We little folk usually fund the minority amount in these things, by far. It's easy enough for me to criticize, for example, TIGHAR's board when I read that deposition - and perhaps rightly so. But I've also thought a time or two about how those very guys also put the lion's share of funding into that effort, more often than not.

Yep, they got the tax advantages too - argue ad nauseam, pro and con, but as to us little folk - as long as Billings' principle of not letting kiddies bust their piggie banks and not letting helpless old folks get bled, it is more savvy buyer beware. But the buyer ought to be informed - well agreed.

So, Gary has spoken. Will he finish the discussion?

========================================
I've had great admiration for Long since when he flew around the world the 'hard way" over both Poles in a Piper Navajo. I have also flown Navajos so I am really impressed with his accomplishment.

Some have criticized his analysis of the end of the Earhart flight as "just drawing a box around Howland." Long did quite a bit more than just draw a box around Howland. I certainly do not criticize his analysis of Noonan's navigation, I can't, since I used exactly the same methodology. He allowed for an increasing circle of uncertainty as fixes were carried forward by dead reckoning, which is exactly what I showed in many of my posts on TIGHAR. I differ with his analysis in that I place an additional constraint on the possible position of the plane, that It couldn't have been in the clear area in the vicinity of Howland, Itasca reported this area as extending at least 40 NM in all directions. I base this on the accuracy available from celestial navigation. If they ever entered that clear area, Noonan would have been able to take additional observations of both the sun and of the MOON, establish an updated fix, free from the degradation caused by moving an old fix forward based only on dead reckoning, and then fly directly to Howland. Since they did not land at Howland it means that they were prevented from taking these additional observations and the obvious explanation was that they were in the cloudy area 40 NM to the north. Additional support for this is Earhart's statement that they were flying at only 1,000 feet. Since a higher altitude would have been much better for spotting Howland, the obvious reason that they were only at 1,000 feet is that they were forced, against their will, to get that low to get under the clouds so that they would have some chance of spotting the island.

See:
http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,6 ... l#msg15715
http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,6 ... l#msg15908
http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,3 ... ml#msg4068

http://tighar.org/smf/index.php?action= ... ttach=3339
http://tighar.org/smf/index.php?action= ... ttach=3386


Perhaps an analogy will help. The new Amelia Earhart just completed a flight around the world in a PC-12 turboprop. Let's say that she was last heard on the radio in the vicinity of Howland, saying that she couldn't find Howland, but then she disappeared. Since she was using GPS (and everybody knows GPS is extremely accurate) the only explanation for why she couldn't find Howland is that something must have been wrong with her GPS. Another mystery of the air.

But, then later, it comes out that on the day of this disappearance that the navy was conducting tests of new secret GPS jamming equipment 40 NM north of Howland. You would say "ah-ha" that is the explanation, she must have been in the area in which the GPS signals were being jammed and we should look for her there. Clouds were the 1937 equivalent of a GPS jamming signal.

From the charts shown on TIGHAR depicting the prior searches it appears that this area was not searched, if it was we do not know of it. See:
http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,3 ... ml#msg5204

It is true that I do not think very much of the navigation analysis done by Waitt and I wrote a scathing critique of it on TIGHAR. It was laughable that they relied on Jacobson who couldn't navigate a grocery store shopping cart down a supermarket aisle. Jacobson is "Mr. Look angle."
See:
http://tighar.org/smf/index.php/topic,5 ... ml#msg8147

gl


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:03 am 
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Jeffrey Neville wrote:
Quote:
You will see me wearing a black polo shirt and a black windbreaker each with the Stratus Project logo. That is all I have to show for my association with Stratus, no $239,000 like Ric, just two items of clothing. Colin offered to reimburse me for my airfare to Ireland to meet with him in February 2013, which seemed reasonable since I believed, then, that he had raised money from others to support Stratus. I then found out that all the money for the project had come out of Colin't own pocket so I didn't accept the reimbursement so I am out one round trip airfare from Los Angeles to Ireland, I count this as my contribution to Stratus.

As to transparency about Status' theory, just look at those almost 2,000 posts of mine on TIGHAR. (1,624 posts on the new TIGHAR forum in 2011 and 2012 and several hundred on the old forum in 2002 and 2003.) I have been saying the same thing since 2002, they crashed into the sea north of Howland under the cloudy area reported by Itasca. Let me say it again, they crashed into the sea north of Howland under the cloudy area reported by Itasca. is that clear enough? Oh, and look at my website too, https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/


As to Stratus asking for confidentiality, the only thing we are keeping secret is the exact spot on that big ocean that I think is the best place to start the search. You're right, we don't want others to be convinced by my analysis and send their ship to that spot. Can you blame us? Stratus is trying to raise money to send its own research ship to start a search there (I don't know how successful this effort will be) but I would certainly like the aircraft to be found (by somebody) and would really like it to be based on my analysis.
So I really don't see any valid comparison with TIGHAR.
gl


That's all nice. Of course I don't blame you for protecting your 'site'.

With all the positives you seem to have to offer, why are you engaged in such a negative campaign against TIGHAR / Gillespie? Why not focus on promoting Stratus if these points are solid? I appreciate your tone here, so obviously it is in you to promote positively - but it is unseemly for you to bank on pulling TIGHAR down as you often do. Why not simply ignore TIGHAR?

Who wouldn't like to have their theory validated by the find - more power to you. But in the end I'm sure it is not that altruistic, Gary - "no free lunch" - you guys are asking for OPM in the publicly supported venue by seeking not for profit status, yet no doubt there will no doubt be profits at some point and in some form if you are successful - all leveraged by the product of tax-benefitted donations made under 'not for profit'. And what of interim operating costs such as livelihood should you and Colin become successful in launching the mission and need to attend to that - will neither of you take a salary as Gillespie does?

Those things are not necessarily crimes in the least, of course - but for the public to have confidence it may help to understand your philosophy and plans thus. We've seen Gillespie live full time out of the TIGHAR till and one can argue as to value all day long, I suppose. Are you in effect saying that you nor Cobb would ever accept a quarter million windfall should you raise a couple or three million in a year to launch a search and busy yourselves making that happen? I'm just curious and like to know those things before buying a fat package or even a hat, probably.

Of course if you and Cobb are going to forego compensation and accept only costs, etc. to get it done and pray for a shot at a book, story rights, etc. later, more power to you and my hat's off.

Just curious, Gary - and I think those things are important where a seeking of 'not for profit' status are concerned - especially from you since you've had much to say about that and how TIGHAR has managed. BTW, that is NOT in defense of TIGHAR - it is simply a hard-nosed consumer curiosity that ought to apply to anyone considering a significant donation to something like Stratus IMO. It is also NOT a personal attack or accusation against you or Colin - but you yourself have made quite a watermark in this industry as a 'consumer advocate', so balance seems in order.

All the best -

====================================
Jeff, your really need to address your questions to Colin, it is his business and organization. All I have done is provide to Stratus my analysis of the navigation, almost all of which I have published freely on many forums for all to see, and to criticize.
I have been thinking of writing a book, pulling all of my posts together into a coherent whole but, I'm lazy.

gl


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 10:10 am 
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Posts: 50
gary217 wrote:
Jeff, your really need to address your questions to Colin, it is his business and organization. All I have done is provide to Stratus my analysis of the navigation, almost all of which I have published freely on many forums for all to see, and to criticize.
I have been thinking of writing a book, pulling all of my posts together into a coherent whole but, I'm lazy.

gl


Jeff,

I mentioned, I am a forum follower of Tighar, and this post was presented on the Tighar site by Colin so time ago, whether or not things have changed since then, I am unaware.

Colin Philip Cobb
T1

Posts: 16

XRe: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2014, 10:05:10 AM »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi Andrew

After that message you're buying all the Guinness next time :-)
Big commercial venture , no, we are in the process of applying for "not for profit" status.
Just incase you thought I was going to spend it on hot tub trips abroad.
And like all "not for profits" there will be accounts published online.

At this present time we are not releasing where we are searching as there are other ventures that will be in the region soon and we think it's wise to keep under wraps.
Tighar is protected by it's Antiques license against others searching in the area.
We have no such protection.

You want clarity well to date I've spent around $20k of my own personal money in the project.
But all things have a limit and any funds we do raise through the shop or donation packages go directly to administration and just keeping the awareness going.
Everything from Ashlins wage as it's her full time job to marketing and SEO for the website and some travel for talks etc.

And like other websites we own from Titanic to Jack the Ripper we pride ourselves on a good looking slick website.
If you want you're more than welcome to visit us here at Stratus HQ in Belfast, all those on the Tighar forum are welcome here to Belfast.

Our passion is born out of Amelia landing here in my home country to become the first woman to cross the Atlantic solo, we are genuine in our efforts and determined to to find Amelia's plane.
I look forward to your first T-Shirt order. :-)

Take care

Colin


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:10 am 
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Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:32 am
Posts: 211
gary217 wrote:
Jeffrey Neville wrote:
====================================
Jeff, your really need to address your questions to Colin, it is his business and organization. All I have done is provide to Stratus my analysis of the navigation, almost all of which I have published freely on many forums for all to see, and to criticize.
I have been thinking of writing a book, pulling all of my posts together into a coherent whole but, I'm lazy.

gl


Colin's not a regular here.

That's just further evasiveness anyway, Gary - but I understand that is a hazard of your primary trade: you don't tolerate that in others but you visit it on all who seek that which you care not to answer.

Colin apparently depends on you to be a foil to go after TIGHAR's 'ways and means' since he does nothing to bar you from being both a principle figure in his competing organization and a self-assumed consumer advocate in your tireless striving against the ills of TIGHAR. And, you're anything but lazy, as evidence by all those posts and your 'consumer advocacy'. I simply find your dual efforts hypocritical.

IMO, Stratus doesn't look so very different from much of what you gripe about at TIGHAR. You all just haven't gotten so far down the path, so I'll grant you that - time will tell.

I've gotten all the answers I needed - Stratus is about what I thought: another idea house looking for public leverage.

_________________
Jeff Neville

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 11:13 am 
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Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2014 7:32 am
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Viper Strike wrote:
gary217 wrote:
Jeff, your really need to address your questions to Colin, it is his business and organization. All I have done is provide to Stratus my analysis of the navigation, almost all of which I have published freely on many forums for all to see, and to criticize.
I have been thinking of writing a book, pulling all of my posts together into a coherent whole but, I'm lazy.

gl


Jeff,

I mentioned, I am a forum follower of Tighar, and this post was presented on the Tighar site by Colin so time ago, whether or not things have changed since then, I am unaware.

Colin Philip Cobb
T1

Posts: 16

XRe: The Stratus Project - The Search for Amelia Earhart
« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2014, 10:05:10 AM »
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi Andrew

After that message you're buying all the Guinness next time :-)
Big commercial venture , no, we are in the process of applying for "not for profit" status.
Just incase you thought I was going to spend it on hot tub trips abroad.
And like all "not for profits" there will be accounts published online.

At this present time we are not releasing where we are searching as there are other ventures that will be in the region soon and we think it's wise to keep under wraps.
Tighar is protected by it's Antiques license against others searching in the area.
We have no such protection.

You want clarity well to date I've spent around $20k of my own personal money in the project.
But all things have a limit and any funds we do raise through the shop or donation packages go directly to administration and just keeping the awareness going.
Everything from Ashlins wage as it's her full time job to marketing and SEO for the website and some travel for talks etc.

And like other websites we own from Titanic to Jack the Ripper we pride ourselves on a good looking slick website.
If you want you're more than welcome to visit us here at Stratus HQ in Belfast, all those on the Tighar forum are welcome here to Belfast.

Our passion is born out of Amelia landing here in my home country to become the first woman to cross the Atlantic solo, we are genuine in our efforts and determined to to find Amelia's plane.
I look forward to your first T-Shirt order. :-)

Take care

Colin


I remember it. It was a nice lead in by a nice man.

Time will tell but I have to say after all that has gone in this business generally, it appears to me that Stratus is just one more idea house - slick looking at that, that is looking to leverage success with OPM. How they actually do that in the long run will tell more, of course.

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Jeff Neville

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 5:30 pm 
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If Stratus is looking North of Howland then my guess is we are in for another goose-chase. I do not have special knowledge, but do think she must be somewhere southwest of Howland, delayed by the unanticipated headwinds.

Anything that I am missing?

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:43 pm 
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I'd like to offer a different opinion, that of someone who could donate and at some point will but it won't be TIGHAR. Why, the exhorbatant lifestyle the leader of TIGHAR lives off of donations, as well as preposterous evidence. Donations that should go to furthering the organization and it's research. Sure, the leader should draw a salary, but $240k for a number of years? Nope, this wreaks of scam all over it.
I appreciate all the information that is being shared, but I see no comparison yet to TIGHAR of Stratus unless they do get non-profit status and take unrealistic salaries.
Thanks,
David


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:13 pm 
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I think you need to place a distinction on OPM in regards to fund-raising claimed to be for a specific purpose, and merchandise sales, which simply fund the organisations operating costs.

If an organisation has paid staff, and sells T-shirts to OPM to fund that, I see no problem with that at all.

(I'm not sure the OPM needs to have any concern as to the purpose the funds are put to, as they purchased goods, no different to any other retail activity).

If an organisation has paid staff, and seeks a donation of OPM to cover those costs, I equally see no problem with that.

If an organisation with paid staff, seeks a donation of OPM towards a specific purpose, ie an expedition to Niku, and then siphons off significant portions of that in upsized staff remuneration, then I see a problem in that.

If an organisation continues to promote their fundraising of OPM using discredited evidences and debunked hypothesis, then I see significant problems with that.

I am not sure I have seen evidence of "any other" entities searching for Earhart doing any of that, other than the merchandising?

The ethical use of OPM depends on the purpose in which the OPM was sought, and the transparency of purpose and use, non-profit charitable organisations are typically held to a much higher ethical standard than a for profit retail business.

Non-Profit charitable organisations are normally expected to keep their administrative costs and remuneration,(most are volunteer run), in scale of their fundraising and turnover, where it is excessive, it is more than reasonable to question "WHY?"

Regards

Mark Pilkington

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2015 2:25 am 
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Jeffrey Neville wrote:
gary217 wrote:
Jeffrey Neville wrote:
====================================
Jeff, your really need to address your questions to Colin, it is his business and organization. All I have done is provide to Stratus my analysis of the navigation, almost all of which I have published freely on many forums for all to see, and to criticize.
I have been thinking of writing a book, pulling all of my posts together into a coherent whole but, I'm lazy.

gl


Colin's not a regular here.

That's just further evasiveness anyway, Gary - but I understand that is a hazard of your primary trade: you don't tolerate that in others but you visit it on all who seek that which you care not to answer.

Colin apparently depends on you to be a foil to go after TIGHAR's 'ways and means' since he does nothing to bar you from being both a principle figure in his competing organization and a self-assumed consumer advocate in your tireless striving against the ills of TIGHAR. And, you're anything but lazy, as evidence by all those posts and your 'consumer advocacy'. I simply find your dual efforts hypocritical.

IMO, Stratus doesn't look so very different from much of what you gripe about at TIGHAR. You all just haven't gotten so far down the path, so I'll grant you that - time will tell.

I've gotten all the answers I needed - Stratus is about what I thought: another idea house looking for public leverage.

==================================================

Jeff, I don't appreciate your personal attacks (I used to like you.) I accurately described my limited role at Stratus and directed you to pursue your issues directly with Colin, that's all I can do. I have no role in merchandising, or fund raising and I have no knowledge of Colin's actions in these areas. Again, please address your questions to Colin and leave me out of it.

gl


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2015 9:01 pm 
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gary217 wrote:

==================================================

Jeff, I don't appreciate your personal attacks (I used to like you.) I accurately described my limited role at Stratus and directed you to pursue your issues directly with Colin, that's all I can do. I have no role in merchandising, or fund raising and I have no knowledge of Colin's actions in these areas. Again, please address your questions to Colin and leave me out of it.

gl


Nothing personal intended, Gary, and I guess I overestimated your involvement with Stratus, thinking you somehow to be a principal in terms of your headlined role as it appeared to be. My apologies if I misunderstood your level of involvement, but thanks for clarifying that.

As to 'personal' I don't believe I was nearly as personal in asking these things about a business / affiliation as you were in the old days at TIGHAR with many condescending replies to my own in various strings before we got to know each other a bit better - which I tolerated far better than you have this line of inquiry.

Just to clarify a bit - I respect your views of 'what happened' but experience has taught me that 'goose chase' (as suggested by another poster, above) is a very real risk when we start going after these ideas. You gave a very nice but I think evasive answer when you nicely said that you 'have an idea' and 'hope it might lead to finding the bird' and that others are being asked to help if they'd like - all very nice. But the fact is, you are standing up an idea, knowing full-well that an organization seeks funds under what they hope will be a not-for-profit scheme, to go out and check your idea out.

So far the big differences, to me, lie in that Gillespie is a full-time rather well paid devotee of his enterprise, whereas for the moment Stratus has no one receiving such compensation today - but is not clear on what may develope should funds come in, AND style: whereas Ric flamboyantly promotes wispy possibilities in ways that sound like near-fact (something you've pointed out many times), Stratus does seem to use a more circumspect tone.

But that is of little matter here, since you are not involved as a principal but at some level as a volunteer consultant, apparently. You preference to defer to Colin as to Stratus' intent / outlook is actually telling enough for my current needs: you aren't any more willing to defend Stratus as a business in this search than you would TIGHAR, although you have great reason, as you see it, to condemn TIGHAR. I have no particular problem with the latter - although it seemed odd to see a principal of another search being so condemning of the one, but now explained; the former is a bit surprising (deferring to Colin), but I certainly accept it: you are a volunteer consultant, apparently, and I am off-base asking you to answer as to Stratus' business intent.

Colin's welcome to come here and respond if he cares to, of course. He's a very nice man to talk to. BTW, I saw Titanic's dry dock on public TV today - nice exposure; I'm sure Stratus' approach will mirror that - and as Coling has said, is about celebrating Earhart's ties to Ireland and pursuing what he / his organization believes is the more tenable approach, etc., etc. I am merely interested, should he care to respond since you are not involved business-wise, what he has in mind for administration / costs, continued pursuit of not-for-profit or not, expectations of full-time occupation / compensation should the pace pick up, etc.

Also interested in why we should have so much more confidence in Gary LaPook's particular theory as Stratus sees it, above others. i can get the general idea of crashed and sank - but that's very general as i see it. It is a large thing to ask people to contribute to a search of this magnitude, for sure. I'm not interested in the proprietary area - just how Stratus came to have so much confidence in the LaPook theory above others.

That's not an aspersion on your abilities, Gary, and I certainly respect the fine veterans who heard and enjoyed your presentation. You are very smart, no question - and I'm sure you know your way around celestial naviation very well - which those nice vets no doubt could see and support. But that remains as far away from pointing accurately to a terminus for Earhart's flight to me as Betty's Notebook does for you at TIGHAR. ; )

Whether you like me or not is of no matter here - that is between us as we care to pursue it, or not. If my skin were that thin I would not have been around as long as I have here and at TIGHAR - frankly dealing with your own acid view and replies at a fairly personal level many times in the past. Something I handled without developing any particular personal dislike for you over, in fact.

But as to this matter, I have enough answers for now: as a consumer every one of these promised efforts is a high-risk goose chase, IMO. Nothing about Stratus stands out as more promising than TIGHAR for me as it stands today in absolute terms of potential success, or as to business model for that matter: OPM is requested so as to test a hypothesis.

I'm long familiar with your general ideas and respect your navigational abilities, but as to finding Earhart - CRAPSHOOT, says I. Lesson learned after many years - and you were right: the Pacific is a very large ocean.

But, good luck to you.

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PostPosted: Sun Apr 12, 2015 11:48 pm 
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Jeffrey Neville wrote:
You must be a follower, Viper.

You may have great faith in Cobb and LaPook, but nothing I've seen out of them suggests any more than a warmed-over asking the public to buy into an idea of chasing Gary's idea of 'what Noonan must have done' to some blind hole in the Pacific. That's not terribly different than much of what Gary gripes about at TIGHAR.

Gary's guiding idea for Stratus ought to be subject to peer review if they expect serious buy-in, too.


Gary/Jeff,
I may have mis-understood the meaning, of several of the statements above, and it may have led to my idea, that Jeff was asking for Gary to reveal his believed location of the Electra. Jeff, when you called for , Gary's idea to be subject to peer review, I assumed you meant that it should be debated in a public setting, for any and all to offer peer review. If I am mistaken, I appologize, and am sorry if it has caused a rift between the two of you.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 5:51 am 
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There's no 'rift' as far as I'm concerned.

I don't know how anyone got the idea that I asked for Gary to reveal the proprietary location Stratus intends to search except for Gary having said I was asking for that at least a couple of times. It's not true.

What I asked for was how Stratus arrives at that decision with enough confidence so as to ask in good conscience for public donations under a not for profit scheme - a far more general question.

There's come to be a fair question about this industry as to what searchers really intend when operating on OPM - not to single any one out or attack as to presumption of motives - but to ask fairly what the plan is. Gary's been a leading critic of that very thing where he felt OPM was abused, so it seems a natural question. From his view, clearly, that it is his analysis and that he's made his navigation views visible on TIGHAR and at his own FredieNoonan site and was well received during a talk at a veteran aviator's gathering is sufficient underponning.

Which does not answer how Stratus objectively establishes the soundness of Gary's approach such as to give confidence to those who'd support going out to a patch of sea at great cost - excepthat I can infer that they have faith in Gary for their own reasons. They've certainly done a nice job of portraying Gary as an able navigator for the public to follow, of course.

Gary, for his part of not being a principal at Stratus (as he's clarified), answered full well as to his personal detachment from Stratus' business intentions. Gary's been plain enough that he is merely the supplier of the navigational theory and that Stratus does as Colin Cobb directs, not Gary. Fair enough.

To be plain, then, I've never asked for public disclosure of Stratus' intended 'spot', only how they have such confidence in that spot. Nor is there any rift from my view.

Nor have I attacked Gary - unless he considers my questioning Stratus' intentions, reminding him that I never asked for proprietary 'coordinates' and calling his repeated insistence that I had done so a red herring, and pointing out that I merely question some things in way way similar to his own where another outfit is concerned an 'attack'.

As to Gary, he's deferred to Colin Cobb as to any question regarding Stratus' intentions, etc. so the questions are answered for me well enough where Gary is concerned: other than providing navigation theory to Stratus, Gary has no interest in or bearing on how Stratus operates.

Fair enough, and having been invited to inquire of Colin of these things, Colin's welcome here of course. It matters little to me at this point whether he attends here or not because I realize Stratus simply has faith in the LaPook hypothesis and the public may choose to buy in or not.

At this point, I simply choose 'not', having had my eyes opened fully as to how large that ocean is and how adventuresome some searchers tend to be with OPM once that gate is opened. One cannot raise concerns about TIGHAR's practices thus without inviting similar scrutiny among others raising funds in a similar manner for essentially the same kind of effort, if in a different venue of course.

That said, I wish them well and that those who buy in find value and success. It is a very high risk prospect, that I fully respect.

In sum, there should be no rancor, and I appreciate the core of what Gary has said here that helped me realize these things well enough. Whether he decides there is a rift or not, or likes me or not is entirely up to him.

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PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 1:30 pm 
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Jeffrey Neville wrote:
You must be a follower, Viper.

You may have great faith in Cobb and LaPook, but nothing I've seen out of them suggests any more than a warmed-over asking the public to buy into an idea of chasing Gary's idea of 'what Noonan must have done' to some blind hole in the Pacific. That's not terribly different than much of what Gary gripes about at TIGHAR.

Gary's guiding idea for Stratus ought to be subject to peer review if they expect serious buy-in, too.


Jeffrey Neville wrote:

I don't know how anyone got the idea that I asked for Gary to reveal the proprietary location Stratus intends to search except for Gary having said I was asking for that at least a couple of times. It's not true.



Well, I for one thought that,

Quote Jeff "but nothing I've seen out of them suggests any more than a warmed-over asking the public to buy into an idea of chasing Gary's idea of 'what Noonan must have done' to some blind hole in the Pacific."

This statement seems to suggest that you believe an appeal has been made to the public ( not restricted to private entities) to accept the Status hypothesis in hopes to garner small donors as well as large, and that may well be true.

Gary's guiding idea for Stratus ought to be subject to peer review if they expect serious buy-in, too.

This statement seems to suggest to me that you think more should be required of Gary/Stratus than the afore mentioned appeal to the public of merely buying into the idea that Gary's knows where the Electra is located. In fact his guiding idea ought to be studied in depth by anyone who would be a potential donor, small or large. In presenting any scenario, theories, etc , how does one avoid the inevitable question that these donors would ask , Where do you think it is?

Further; I believe for me it was several repeated calls for transparency, that may have prompted me to believe that you were requesting a more in depth reveal as to the plans of Stratus, egged on by a comment by yourself , likening Stratus, to Tighar, only in an overcoat ,(we all know what that means),this, gave me the impression you hold a deeper distrust in them, than the aforementioned.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 13, 2015 2:38 pm 
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No problem, Viper Strike.

Gary could well provide a thesis that demonstrates his abilities to accurately track the flight that provides examples without giving away the proprietary specifics. In effect he says he has by his many postings at TIGHAR over the years, and those at FredieNoonan.com, etc. Not to over-labor the point, but that was my level of interest - and yes, a serious donor would likely want to vet the core idea very carefully.

By what I've read on their site yes, an appeal has been made for any level of donor - among the 'public' (it is a public appeal).

Do I think they are up to no good? I merely see the beginnings of an effort that has the same frame work as TIGHAR, from my view: an entity that seeks, under not-for-profit status, donations from the public to go seek wreckage in a very large ocean at great cost - a task which will occupy at least one principal (apparently Cobb) full time at some point if a reasonable job of planning is to be done and the task(s) executed safely and well. In that the thing may resemble TIGHAR is not altogether bad - I leave that to the eye of the beholder. In fact, it is a humorous point to me that such can be the only reading of that point: in fact, make of her what one will, but TIGHAR has yet to kill or maim anyone on her many expeditions to a remote area for a search; while missions have left some things wanting, e.g. remote vehicle operation, etc. they have not been altogether failures. The chief of that operation also has had quite a task on his hands planning and executing those things - judge as one will his worth / what the donating public should expect. So, to that point -

What is Cobb's outlook on those things and how would he do them responsibly / what is foreseen by way of 'administrative costs', has he gotten that far into the planning / if not, why not, etc. Having made the point of 'all things TIGHAR are not bad' I can also say 'lesson learned' means early thought on planning and a good idea of what the costs will be and where the money will go to make it all happen.

I believe there has been a visceral reaction to my rather blunt approach that is actually beyond my meaning: it is easy to over-read in such a case, I can see that. But simply put, Stratus resembles yet another operation that would accept donations from donors, large and small and expect especially the smaller donors, as best I can tell, to simply 'trust' that they have a 'good plan' to go out and fish for Earhart in a very large pond. They've also not been shy about trying to be attractive, so I think the meaty side of the business ought to be well-founded by now so as to make these questions not so hard.

Upr front also seems to be where it's at, although I've heard some argument that I'm too harsh - that I seem to imply some wrong-doing already. Not so - I mrerely think that early answers and thought beat picking up the pieces later and wondering where the confidence went. If my tone is a bit hard it is probably because I've witnessed one participant in this new enterprise exercise continued judgment against another camp, where I believe his new effort would be better served by promotion of same by all that energy, instead. Not seeing much promotion beyond the web site and sales pitch, I naturally have come to wonder "where's the beef".

I hope that helps.

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