Speaking of "What if" .. Dec 7, 1941

What if the Japanese would have been able to attack and sink all our aircraft carriers in the Pacific on Dec 7th, 1941 instead of battleships. Do you think the Japanese would have stayed longer and attacked with several more waves? What do you think would have been the Japanese defenses against American submarines and remaining air defenses in Hawaii if all the American carriers were disabled? what do you think this would have done to the outcome of the war? just how many heavy bombers were in Hawaii during Dec. 7, 1941? and just how much, as far as percentage, was destroyed of USAAF and Naval aviation in Hawaii on Dec 7, 1941?

Seems without much USAAF and Naval air support, the Japanese would have continued the air assault much longer.

I would assume this scenario would have added a few more years to the war in the Pacific. but the outcome would have been the same in the end.

[JDK]

I would assume this scenario would have added a few more years to the war in the Pacific. but the outcome would have been the same in the end.

I'd agree. The loss of the carriers rather than the essentially irrelevant battleships would have been grievous. However, assuming the US wouldn't have sued for peace, it's economically clear that the US could (and did) push to a war economy and had the uninterrupted resources to fight until a victory. Even with the captured resources of the Pacific and China, I don't think Japan had the ability to exploit the resources efficiently. If/when forced back, they couldn't prevail.

Cheers

[Second Air Force]

Hellcat, that is an interesting question with so many possible answers!

If we had lost the carriers along with the vessels we did lose at Pearl, would the Navy have gotten a larger percentage of the available industrial capacity and resources in the U.S.? The battle between the Army and Air Corps versus the Navy might have been weighted heavily toward surface vessels rather than military aircraft, especially the heavy bombers, if we hadn't fought and won the Coral Sea engagement, much less Midway. The Very Heavy Bomber program went through some very tough times in 1942, and it is conceivable that the whole B-29/B-32 programs could have been cancelled in favor of naval units, especially more carriers and fast battleships.

Scott

[Chris Brame]

If some of the carriers had been lost at Pearl, how many did we have in the Atlantic fleet that we could have sent to replace them? And how would this have affected that theater of operations (e.g. Operation Torch)?

[Second Air Force]

I think just Ranger and Saratoga were in the Atlantic at the end of 1941? Heck, we only had a handful at that point to start with in either theatre.

[David_Aiken]

Aloha All,
Ohanashimasuka? I learned what Japanese I know by choice, not by force of arms...and I thank the Allied infantry for that option. The infantryman holds every bit of turf after all other types of weapons are expended.

One can "What If" a topic forever, only the "What Did" matters.

So many folk seem to want the US to lose wars that they dream of ways of saying "What If" this or that happened, how would the enemy win.

"What If" did not win, and "What Did"...did win!

Happy VE and VJ Day!
Cheers,
David Aiken

Last edited by David_Aiken on Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:53 am, edited 1 time in total.

[Garth]

If some of the carriers had been lost at Pearl, how many did we have in the Atlantic fleet that we could have sent to replace them? And how would this have affected that theater of operations (e.g. Operation Torch)?

Question for me is, what are the circumstances that the carriers are sunk under? Is the assumption for this scenario that the PacFlt carriers are in port on 12/7, or are Enterprise and Lexington found on their way back into Pearl and sunk by Kido Butai.

Realistically, only Enterprise and Lex were under possible threat from Kido Butai on 12/7 (and moreso Enterprise than Lex). Saratoga was on the US West Coast; Ranger, Yorktown Wasp and Hornet were in the Atlantic (with Hornet not having fully worked-up yet). Right after Pearl, Yorktown immediately came through the ditch. Hornet followed somewhat later (she came through the ditch right before embarking Doolittle and his Raiders) and Wasp didn't follow until after the US CV force started sustaining losses. But then Saratoga was knocked out for a while after being torpedoed.

The most likely scenario here is that Enterprise and Lex are sunk ... which probably means that Saratoga is deployed differently and doesn't eat a torpedo. Yorktown comes through as she did, Wasp (even though she's less capable, because she had a worked up crew and airgroup) follows almost immediately and Hornet thereafter. So the carrier numbers don't shift. Result is probably Yorktown and Saratoga at Coral Sea, then Yorktown, Hornet and Wasp at Midway. Indeterminate and probably negligible effect on Coral Sea (since the two CVs had competent, worked-up airgroups), but there'd be a major difference at Midway since only Yorktown's airwing would've had combat experience (Wasp's airgroup wouldn't have had the experience Enterprise's got on the Island raids).

Very interesting Garth, I would love to further discuss your points as well. But my thoughts were pointed towards the actual day of Dec 7, 1941 and the thought that the Japanese had caught all out Pacific carriers at Pearl. Would they have stayed longer with additional waves? But please do continue with the longer term discussion here. I'm very interested in reading more about where the other carriers were on Dec 7, 1941 as well. Good stuff here.

[Django]

Would ALL of the carriers have ever been at Pearl? I don't think that would have likely, even for a "what if" discussion.

Would ALL of the carriers have ever been at Pearl? I don't think that would have likely, even for a "what if" discussion.

No, not all, just the carriers that were in Hawaii at the time. Just the actual day of Dec 7, 1941.

[David_Aiken]

Would ALL of the carriers have ever been at Pearl? I don't think that would have likely, even for a "what if" discussion.

No, not all, just the carriers that were in Hawaii at the time. Just the actual day of Dec 7, 1941.

Glad only two CVs were "in Hawaii...the actual day of Dec 7, 1941"...

Lex was delivering aircraft to Midway...and The Big E was delivering aircraft to Wake Island (and returning when a storm caused a delay in refueling)...

Aloha All,
Ohanashimasuka? I learned what Japanese I know by choice, not by force of arms...and I thank the Allied infantry for that option. The infantryman holds every bit of turf after all other types of weapons are expended.

One can "What If" a topic forever, only the "What Did" matters.

So many folk seem to want the US to lose wars that they dream of ways of saying "What If" this or that happened, how would the enemy win.

"What If" did not win, and "What Did"...did win!

Would ALL of the carriers have ever been at Pearl? I don't think that would have likely, even for a "what if" discussion.

No, not all, just the carriers that were in Hawaii at the time. Just the actual day of Dec 7, 1941.

Glad only two CVs were "in Hawaii...the actual day of Dec 7, 1941"...

Lex was delivering aircraft to Midway...and The Big E was delivering aircraft to Wake Island (and returning when a storm caused a delay in refueling)...

What is your point here?, have I upset you in anyway? If I did, sorry friend, but I'm just making conversation. If you are offended by this post, please just not post. I'm well aware of the history of Dec 7, 1941. The others here and I are just discussing a hypothetical situation for some simple conversation. Give me a break please. .. geez!

PS, what I mean't by "in Hawaii" was the carriers stationed at Hawaii at the general time of 1941. Not the actual day of Dec 7, 1941 ... and why am I even bothering to explain this to you? ... who knows, maybe it's because you just pissed me off for no good reason friend. Just for you, I'll work harder on producing better posts.

PSS, go read Bill Greenwood's post on "Conflict on WIX ... have a nice day friend.

Last edited by Hellcat on Mon Mar 03, 2008 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[David_Aiken]

Aloha All,
One can "What If" a topic forever, only the "What Did" matters.

So many folk seem to want the US to lose wars that they dream of ways of saying "What If" this or that happened, how would the enemy win.

"What If" did not win, and "What Did"...did win!

Happy VE and VJ Day!
Cheers,
David Aiken

Aloha "Hellcat",
I have no qualms about a 'conversation' if it produces results... yet a "What If" discussion will never resolve anything. It seems to only make you ("Hellcat") irrigated, when I called this to your attention.

Alas, the conversation seems to be about ships...on a site which is for "warbirds".

Perhaps we should meet at http://www.steelnavy.com/ where this 'conversation' would have interested and responsive ship folk, even some who seem dissatisfied with history.

Cheers,
David Aiken, student of Pearl Harbor

David, no one here is looking for resolution or results, No one is dissatisfied with history, and if you want to talk about history friend, I'll send you some of my Dad's history to show just how dissatisfied I am about history.

It's just simple conversation. No more, no less ... and re-read my original post please. You'll see many items refering to aircraft (warbirds) ... and I'm not "irrigated" whatever that means ... there's a difference between "irrigated or irritated" and "annoyed" .... and the only thing that dissatisfies me is your lack of respect.

even some who seem dissatisfied with history

. How dare you assume that of me.

So please do us all a favor and go visiit your own "navysteel" website and leave us alone until you can contribute in a more mature and respectful way.

Aloha to you

Last edited by Hellcat on Mon Mar 03, 2008 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[David_Aiken]

Aloha "Hell cat",
The term you used is similar to "irrigated" as liquid was involved.

"What If" is not a conversation. It is a dead end.

Have respect for the history of 7 Dec. and the men who fought that day.

Let us study the facts. Myths and fiction are only generated by "what if".
Mahalo nui loa,
David Aiken