bdk wrote:
Sequestration is a reduction in the rate of budget growth. Nothing is being cut unless you speak in Washingtonese.
Whether you want to call it 'cuts' or 'reduction in growth' is semantics depending on which side of the debate you are on.
I can tell you how the sequestration IS playing out in the DoD, particularly from the USN side of things:
The Navy's share of the 'reduction in budget growth' is $4 Billion.
The Navy (and other services) began FY 13 operating under a CR (as we have for the past few years) expecting that Congress and POTUS would eventually work something out. Consequently, in order to meet the operational requirements dictated by the President and Congress, the Navy spent their Q1 and Q2 funds accordingly. The Navy's operating budget is about $1 Billion per month, so in order to meet expected requirements for Q3/Q4, the Navy would need $6 Billion. Because the sequestration kicks in mid-fiscal year, that means the Navy has to take the $4 Billion reduction all out of Q3/4 funding, so if sequestration does happen, we basically have $2 Bill left to meet $6 Bill in requirements. The real kicker of all this is that the way the sequestration is imposed means the reduction all comes out of our operating money. R&D, future acquisiton programs, pay and benefits which make up a HUGE portion of the Navy's overall budget will not be touched at all.
So, essentially the cuts/reductions while small in the big picture, will have the most painful effect possible while at the same time not doing a blessed thing to address the pork and wasteful spending that has spread throughout the federal budget like cancer.
To give you an idea of how painful these seemingly small reductions will be, in order to operate within the $2 Billion that will be left for FY13, the Navy has cancelled all major ship and aircraft availabilities scheduled for the rest of this year and shifted them into FY14. Due to the operating requirements of the last several years (again imposed by the President and Congress) ship deployments have been averaging 8 more months (pre-9/11 deployments were 6 months) and dwell time between deployments has been reduced. The material condition of the fleet and aircraft has significantly suffered, so delaying shipyard periods right now is the worst time to do so. The Navy has asked to reduce the number of ships in the fleet in order to take better care of what we have and that has been DENIED by Congress.
Now for the cascading effects of this approach; because of the cancellation/delay of shipyard periods, BAE Systems (operates shipyards in San Diego and Norfolk) will be forced to lay off 3500 skilled shipyard workers. They simply can't afford to keep them on the payroll with no work to do for 6 months or more. While BAE will eventually get the contracts back, most of those skilled workers will have gotten jobs elsewhere to feed their families, so many of those 3500 workers will not be there to hire back. And now the shipyard has to hire and train new workers which will set back the time required to fix the ships, potentially reduce the quality of the work and likely drive the price of those contracts up.
Hopefully folks can see why musuems and airshows are not a huge priority for the DoD right now.
You can blame whoever you want for this mess (that's all Congress seems to be doing right now), but the reality of the sequester is exactly what I detailed above. The only thing that will change is that IF at some point the President and Congress work things out and retro-actively give us the money back, we will be able to 'buy' back some of the scheduled items that have been cut....and that will likely end up costing us more to reschedule then if we had kept them as scheduled in the first place.
It is easy for someone listening to a talking head on the radio or TV to say that there are no cuts and the sequester will have minimal impact, but for those who are directly effected (I am currently assigned to a ship whose entire schedule and drydock availability has already been affected by this mess) it is a bit more than rhetoric. It is quite possibly the most damaging and inept way I have ever seen to reduce or control spending.