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Here is my opinion on this aircraft, so take it for what it's worth. Because of the asking price of that aircraft, there are only about 6 to 10 people in the world who could be potential buyers. Three of those 10 are no longer in the mix - Paul Allen, Rod Lewis, and the Collings Foundation. Paul Allen, unfortunately due to his untimely death, will most likely have his collection broken up and sold. His sister is in no mood to acquire any more aircraft, so he and his collection are probably done for good. Rod Lewis, similarly, is also in a somewhat divestiture mode. He recently sold off several of his more rare aircraft, including the Mosquito, which I put in the same boat as this XP-82, both in terms of rarity and value. The Collings Foundation - well, we know what's going on with them. They are struggling just to survive and facing multiple lawsuits in the tens of millions of dollars due to the B-17 crash. They had their ride program revoked by the FAA and they could stand to lose a lot of money from the lawsuits, so I don't see them in the mix here either.
That only leaves a few others. The asking price puts this outside the scope of virtually all museums and organizations worldwide, absent a HUGE benefactor who puts up the cash, which is probably unlikely. Because of this, I think it will likely go to an individual person or collection that is owned by a person and is not a non-profit entity. This aircraft has been up for sale for quite some time, even before being "publically" advertised. All of the warbird "movers and shakers" have had the opportunity to buy this for a while now. The fact that it hasn't sold speaks volumes, in my opinion. This tells me that there is either no desire to own this aircraft or to pay the price that is needed to enact a transaction. Since it hasn't sold yet, that tells me that the desire is not out there to own it, given the asking price. Either the price has to come down, or a new independently wealthy person has to enter the warbird scene who has the resources to buy it -i.e. -a Charles Somer type.
I also do know from public interviews that Tom Reilly brought together a team of investors to finance the restoration of this aircraft. It didn't come all out of his pocket alone. I could be wrong, but I got the definite impression from his public interviews that this whole restoration was primarily an investment for Tom and his team, as well as being an opportunity to bring an aircraft "back from the dead". If that holds true, I would be willing to bet that his backers are probably anxious to recoup their investment on this. How low the price could get and how long they are willing to let this sit on the market are completely within their hands. Time will tell, but I would be willing to bet this aircraft doesn't sell until the price drops somewhat, otherwise it would have sold already. When it comes to "one of a kind" aircraft such as this, when one asks, "what's it worth", the answer is always "whatever somebody is willing to pay for it". That means it might go for 6 million or maybe 12 million, or some other value entirely. The aircraft is too rare and too exclusive to put a definitive valuation on it. It just depends on who shows up interested in buying the aircraft.
With all this being said, I hope that Tom and company get a price they are all happy with. I don't think their asking price is unreasonable, given it is likely to be the only one ever being offered for sale, short of a new build replica being built, which I consider very unlikely.
I'm also thankful to Tom and his investors for bringing this aircraft back to life and being able to be enjoyed by warbird fans such as myself. I seriously thought that my having witnessed the CAF's F-82 fly back in the 80's as a kid would be the last opportunity I would have ever had to witness the Twin Mustang in flight.
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