Warbird Information Exchange

I just wanted to open the theoretical idea or possibility of something like this ever happening. When the end is near for flying vintage military aircraft perhaps we need to have one major warbird airshow where every single flyable warbird...piston and jet.....come together(as many as possible). If we ever get close to where warbirds wont be flying anymore there needs to be something like this put together. Just to say, "ok well we got as many as 10 wildcats flying, 13 B-17's flying, etc". IMHO, I always thought the goal to relive the past particularly ww2 is to get as many types flying as possible before it was too late and for whatever reason would cause the end of flying these vintage aircraft. I think the more types coming out of restoration and back to flying is very important. There are many people that never lived through certain times and the only way to really get close to those times is with these aircraft. Yes, there are gatherings of some types every so often. But it still doesn't compare in seeing things like that on a daily basis during ww2 for example. But if it happened more often then that might cure the problem. It would be pretty impossible to gather each and every type. Considering lots of museums and organizations probably don't have the crew to fly all their aircraft at the same time. But Im sure if someday the end of flying warbirds WAS really near someone should try and get something like this going. Heck, Im sure we would all donate to see something like this if people really loved military aviation history and helping to remember our heroes that are no longer with us Im sure that could happen and work. If we all heard of the last warbird show Im sure we would all make sure it was the best ever. Overall, if someday the prospect for the last piston to turn over was near and it would a great idea to gather all of them up...at one place. All in single lines for each type. Very unlikely but not impossible....IMHO.

Thanks for your time,
Nathan

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You took a long and winding path through the woods but if I understood what you were saying, you think there should be one last warbird airshow featuring every flyable warbird, the day before they all get grounded?

Something like that. Not just being grounded but any possibility that would stop operating vintage aircraft. I thought it would be interesting to discuss. I know we all have reasons why we like seeing them fly. To me I would just like to see as many get to the air. Rather I see it from my own eyes or not. Just knowing the numbers are growing gives me hope to see those types more often. I'd love to go through time and see how things were. These aircraft help bring the past alive. It helps me personally see a time I've never been. I know these aircraft can't fly forever. I don't want to see them stop flying. But if it were to happen it would be great to see as many together at one time.

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I've thought about this before too. My thought was somebody should do this with as many WWII aircraft as possible in the next 2-3 years. The WWII vets will be gone soon. Those people deserve every grand gesture we can give them before they are gone. Get as many veterans associations and groups in on it as possible, and completely break the piggy bank to bring as many aircraft together as possible. I'm talking Gathering of Mustangs-level proportions only with all types of warbirds from all nationalities. USAAF, USN, Marines, British, German, Japanese, Russian, anything and everything. Probably won't happen, but it would be really nice if something like this could happen. A Final Salute, if you will.

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Matt

I don't think we'll ever see a day that these planes will be permanently grounded. The numbers of those still flying may be significantly curtailed, but I doubt it would be to extinction. With CAD/CAM technology able to reproduce just about any part, especially the critical engine components, these planes could be flown far longer than people anticipated. With the increased rarity, CAD/CAM will become a more economically viable option. I think we'll also see a greater number of scratch build replicas as many of the original airframes retire. It's not unprecedented: For instance, there are more flying Fokker Triplane replicas today than there were total produced during World War I. Granted, World War II aircraft are more complex than World War I planes, but it is certainly feasible for people with good aviation skills.

However, if there ever was a last hurrah, it would be great to see some of the long-term projects (notably the P-61) take wing. Or see some of the static planes that could fly and see them take wing. That would probably get a few more 17s in the sky. Maybe on the occasion of the 75th Anniversary of V.J. day we could see this kind of massive flyover.

Somebody's got a lot of extra time on their hands. Nathan...shouldn't you be out cutting the grass or sumthin'?

Mudge the amused

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Land of the free because of the brave

Doomsayers have been predicting the end of warbird flying ever since the start of warbird flying. I predict it will never come. We will be able to fabricate any warbird from scratch on a 3D printer before the existing ones are used up. Only if all homebuilts or all general aviation is banned will we see the end of flying warbirds.

August

saxman said:

August said

The day will come. Oil is a limited resource, and while we will never run completely out of it, there will come a time when supplies will be greatly exceeded by demand. The result will not just be prohibitively high prices, but I think rationing and laws to preclude less essential usages of petroleum.

There are plenty of people who say this will never happen. I consider them mathematically challenged. Oil production in the United States peaked in 1970 - 1970! - and has pretty much steadily diminished since then, and that has not been changed by recent increases of natural gas recovered from oil shales. Gasoline crises like what we saw in the 1970s will happen again, but with the US production being much lower and demand from China and elsewhere being much higher than the last time around.

So the discussion is a good one, and worth making at this time. My guess is that the grand final parade outlined at the beginning of this thread will not happen because by that time the oil will be too precious and the use in an airshow will be considered too frivolous by too many. My thoughts are that the final flights should be to repositories that would take care of the airplanes for the longterm.

What we should be doing is, rather than planning for that final flyby, making the major and minor museums tht will likely survive more secure and providing sufficient hanger space to cover everything worth preserving for the long term.

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Kevin McCartney

War will happen before ANY American (at least) fighter plane that is in private hands will be grounded.

I do like the idea of bringing them all together though for one final tribute to our remaining WW2 vets. They deserve it.

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I'll be attending the first and I hope many, Gathering of Warbirds and Legends in Topeka ,Kansas in August. Was at the Gathering of Mustangs and Legends , and was much more than Mustangs. Looks to be a good show.

Kevin, rather than mathematically challenged, you should consider them economically sophisticated. Google the Simon-Ehrlich wager and the principle of substitution.

August

I understand the Simon-Ehrlich wager, and teach about it in my classes,and you are to be complimented on such an astute question. The bet was originally made concerning five commodity metals with the wager being that with increased scarcity the search for new locations and better technologies would create a decrease rather than increase in commodity prices, and such a decrease did occur.

However, I do not think that oil works the same way. As mentioned in the original email, US oil production peaked in 1970, and most of the other non-Middle Eastern producers have peaked more recently (the spectacular North Sea peak occuring in the last decade). Once the peak is reached, the decline is relentless; new fields are smaller than the earlier discoveries and tertiary production technologies only recover a fraction of the original production. There is also realistic concern, in my opinion, that the Middle East fields (Saudi Arabia, Iran) are at or near their peaks, with the producing countries going to great lengths to keep estimates of their reservoirs secret. New fields, such as offshore Brazil (all of which will go to China, by the way) will not replace the diminishment of existing fields. New Giant Oil Field discoveries have steadily grown fewer and less extensive enough in recent decades that that too has become something of a statistical truism.

That the metals of the Simon-Ehlich wager have diminished in price is in part because we now use less of many of those metals in our cars and buildings. We are not using less oil, despite more effecient engines. To some degree, we are using more oil to produce the plastics that replace the metals, while internal combustion engine use also increases. The downside of the Hubbert Curve is coming. I know people have been saying this for a long time, but the crash in inevitable, with the only real uncertainty being when. By the way, the natural gas recovered from fracking is primarily offsetting the burning of coal in our power plants, and cannot economically be made into high octane fuel. The production of ethanol more or less takes the same amount of energy to raise and refine the fuel from corn as is produced in the burning, and is only made affordable by the government farm subsidies.

Oil will eventually become a very precious commodity.

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Kevin McCartney

Whew! It's good to know that on the OTHER SIDE of the SUN, the "OTHER" Earth is awash in Oil & Restored Warbirds! (Even From W.W.III!) along with Bizzaro Superman! A Big A** Airshow/Flyby sounds great!! Needs a big place like Texas if you ask me! Do'nt worry, in the next Ten Years we'll see more '17s, P-51s, Hellcats, Bearcats, Seafurys, P-40s (real or not!) A B-23, A P-61, A B-29, Wilcats, P-47s, 2 P-82s, an O-47(maybe 2?) ect..ect... again, Do'nt Worry, LOOK UP!

While flights may be much curtailed, I suspect there will always be some hold-out bent on flying these types of aircraft for many years to come. Some of us still spend countless hours learning how to do things like fight with swords, speak with the right accent and dress properly for the late 1500's ...for which there is a growing interest. Warbirds are just more current history- but as Living History groups move forward, they will fall under that umbrella someday too....

With the ability to produce synthetic oils and fuels, it will (like most things warbird) simply be a function of cost. The days of a $1500 Mustang with some .25 cent gas is over. Someday we will (laughably) lament the long-lost days of $6 a gallon av gas. But those who can afford the $20 a gallon it will cost will soldier on, and we will stand there cheering them on.

kevin

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