Garth wrote:
If this happens, the US manned space program is effectively dead. ..?
Looking back, I believe the US space program was almost pointless after Apollo. The Space Shuttle was largely a dead end, and (IMO) did relatively little to expand science. Beyond that, it didn't do anything to inspire the next generation of explorers.
Back when Apollo was underway, NASA was largely a "Get the job done" engineering organization. It was founded in 1958 and wasn't the bureaucracy it is today. After Apollo, and with no real "next mission", NASA went into the mode of "Let's create a mission, sell the idea, and preserve our funding. Otherwise, we're all out of work" Typical bureaucracy. Today, the bureaucracy is 52 years old and is as much in the business of perpetuating the bureaucracy as in the business of space flight. Gut the bureaucracy and a manned spaceflight mission probably becomes affordable again. But you could say the same thing about virutally all government programs and organizations. Bureaucracy is what drives all the horror stories that get reported by the press.
Additionally, from a cost/benefit standpoint, going back to the Moon, or even sending men to Mars seems like diminshing returns. Under the original Moon program, we spent a fabulous amount of money, yet still accepted a substantial risk of loss of life on those missions. In today's world, we'd never accept the odds we accepted the first time around, so the expense would be exponentially higher.
The really sad thing is that NASA is a tiny, tiny part of the budget. Entitlement programs are where the real money goes, and nobody has the courage to address them.