1946

[Glenn]

Was very interested in this forums opinion of if World War II had gone into 1946 and beyond. An alternate history if you will of the Pacific.

Assume Truman decides not to drop atomic bombs due to their horrific power. Military coup in Japan overthrows Hirohito in August. Russia does not declare war against Japan and remains neutral. Operation Olympic (Nov. 1, 1945) Invasion of Kyushu is delayed due to Landing craft, aircraft and Okinawa staging area still devastated by Typhoon Louise October 9th, 1945. Operation Coronet and the invasion of Honshu follows Olympic. Japanese Home army amasses on Main islands. Population prepares massive defenses. Assume 12,725 Japanese planes remain (5,651 army and 7,074 navy aircraft). Excludes Ohka bombs numbers.

Please see the following:

http://www.geocities.com/Athens/Acropol ... nfall.html

Operation Downfall--Invasion of Japan would have taken how long to complete?
Operation Olympic would have taken place when in 1946?
Operation Coronet would have taken place when?
What type of losses would the Allies have taken?
What type of losses would the Japanese have taken?
What would the Air war have looked like over Japan in 1946 and beyond? How similar to Korean War?
B-32 Dominators,B-29's,B-36's?
Japanese Jets, Allies and their Meteors and P-80's. F-86 was developed when?

[O.P.]

The alternate history discussions are a lot of fun. I've been in a few over here....

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewforum. ... 62bd73a165

Theres a lot of good info and ideas.

[dj51d]

Even with that number of planes(according to Masatake Okumiya in "Zero!" there were a total of 5130 combat aircraft and a few thousand trainers left by August of 1945), Japanese airpower would not have been a factor. By August of 1945 fuel supplies were extremely critical leading to even less training before sending pilots into combat(when they had fuel for combat). Also late in the war, aircraft production was more or less at a standstill as was production of lubricating oils. Basicly this all boils down to the allies retaining complete air superiority for the remainder of the war. I don't really see extending the Pacific war as having much, if any effect on aircraft development since the sad state of Japanese airpower wouldn't have placed any additional pressure to introduce new aircraft.

I don't care to make any speculations about the invasion, other than there would be extreme losses on both sides.

[TimAPNY]

I think we would have fire bombed every living thing on those Islands and starved them as best as we could have until we where ready to invade.


and the invasion would still have killed unbelievable amount of people.

[SaxMan]

It would have been very, very, very, messy. A lot of people on both sides would have been killed.

The Eighth Air Force would be up to full-strength, but now equipped with 2,000 B-29s. The 8th & 20th AFs with their B-29s and the 5th & 7th with their B-24s and B-32s would have reduced the Japanese home islands to a cinder.

The US Navy would have had well over 30 fleet carriers at its disposal and nearly double that in escort carriers. No part of the Japanese islands would be immune from their reach.

Even though the Japanese had secret weapons up their sleeve, there would be no fuel to fly them. Moreover, the Japanese were incapable of mass producing technologically complex aircraft. The George was a very advanced aircraft, but only produced in limited numbers. Even the relatively simple Zero was never produced in the kind of numbers that Allied, or even German, aircraft were produced.

In any case, the war would have been over by the end of 1946.

These exercises in "what if" are kind of fun. However, when you start undoing the threads of time, the whole tapestry falls apart. Suppose, for instance, that in one of these 1946 raids, George H.W. Bush (on his second tour) was shot down and killed. History would be a lot different!

[Scott Rose]

These exercises in "what if" are kind of fun. However, when you start undoing the threads of time, the whole tapestry falls apart. Suppose, for instance, that in one of these 1946 raids, George H.W. Bush (on his second tour) was shot down and killed. History would be a lot different!

True, I was thinking while writing on the other thread that what if Corporal Adolf Hitler was killed in WWI? This forum wouldn't exsist and airplanes would be fairly boring.

[HarvardIV]

I think they would have been neutralized in the air in no time, and then it would have been a warlord type of war like in Iraq.

[Glenn]

From my recent readings and your postings here's what can be deduced:

Allied forces would have achieved COMPLETE air superiority in the Fall of 1945. 17 US and 5 British Aircraft Carriers under Adm. Halsey would do round the clock daylight attacks. Continuous shelling of Coastal targets by Fifth Fleet under Spruance & Rawling (TF-37) would have gone non-stop. End result: Destruction of Remaining Japanese Fleet & Airfields. Japanese Oil, food scarcities due to transportation lines cut from Air attacks.

Allied forces would have invaded Kyushu (Operation Olympic) with Sixth Army (including 1 British/1 Canadian/1 Australian Div) under Gen. Krueger. Amounting to over 500,000 landing sometime between Nov.-Mar. 1946 as per delays. Japanese Ketsu-Go strategy had 450,000 in defense (9 Div) under Field Marshal Shunroku in HIGHLY Defensible Mountainous Terrain. End Result: 3-6 months Kysushu falls. Makes Okinawa's losses look small on both sides. Kagoshima Wan focal point for Allied invasion. Establish Air Bases for Operation Coronet.

B-29s and B-32s of Gen. C. A. Spaatz's Strategic Air Forces & Lt. Gen. N. F. Twining's Twentieth Air Force would have Fire-Bombed Kyushu and Honshu non-stop. Only Oscars and George could reach the high altitude sparingly and would be overwelmed by Allies sheer numbers of Fighters. End result: Honshu as has been suggested would have burned from coast to coast. Untold suffering.

Finally, Russia moved into Korea in August 1945 and probably would have utilised some air assault on Hokkaido next with the focal point being Sapporo. Russian Naval assets were modest in the Far East. But would have been crucial for resupply on Hokkaido. This is speculative since very little documentation is written.

Due to massive losses...Operation Coronet--the invasion of Honshu probably would have been delayed until August 1946 or indefinately in the hopes the Japanese would sue for peace. UN would still ask for Unconditional Surrender.

[Glenn]

Hirohito had 3 choices for capitulation:

1) Accept Unconditional Surrender and spare his people further suffering.
2) Fight on and see the systematic destruction of everything.
3) Delay Peace negotiations to save some face but risk losing everything (including his throne and the $100B personal fortune in Swiss accounts) and possibly encountering a Soviet invasion on Hokkaido. Therefore splitting Japan into a Communist North and a Free South occupation much like Korea.

Can anyone else think of other possibilities?