What will be flying in 50 years?

[mjanovec]

As far as warbirds go, what will be flying in 50 years? Will we be looking at mostly the same era of birds flying...i.e. WWII era, some early Cold War planes, and a scattering of pre-WWII birds? Will replicas and new builds eventually take over?

Is it safe to assume we won't be seeing privately owned and operated F-14s and F-15s (and their like) in the skies? The Collins Foundation got permission to fly an F-4. Is that a one of a kind occurance or will we eventually see more "modern" jets in private hands, assuming anyone has the kind of money and staff to fly and maintain these extremely complex birds.

I know this is probably an occasional topic of conversation, but is there any consensus on the subject?

Then again, in 50 years how many of the miltary's front line aircraft will have a human on board?

[Scott Rose]

The Collings F-4 is a unique situation, though its not impossible to say it could not be repeated. I think for the most part the newest American jet warbird we will see flying is the A-4. Several of these are under restoration to airworthy. I am waiting to see if someone manages to get a Mig 29 or the like flying on the civil registry. I can see this as a possibility in the next 50 years.

[Firebird]

It's a shame the Collings Foundation can't get to restore a Crusader as well, now that would be a bit special.
Vietnam pairs display, F4 and F8....
There's still a few RF-8G's mothballed out in the desert.....

Jets may be all you can hope for still flying in 50 years time, as you have to wonder whether AVGAS will still be available by then for the piston stuff......

[HarvardIV]

Jets may be all you can hope for still flying in 50 years time, as you have to wonder whether AVGAS will still be available by then for the piston stuff......

The pistons will fly if nothing disasterous occurs. Synthetic fuels can be made if there are petroleum shortages. More cars will also probably be powered by fuel cells too, freeing up petroleum resources.

I think it is easily possible that an F-14 F-15 or F-16 will fly. Iran still has F-14s, and a collector can go over there and get one in 20 years if our military doesn't wipe them out in the mean time.

Also, many many countries have F-16s, it's possible the the FAA will allow a procured import Viper fly as well.

I think the F-15 will be the rarest, and perhaps a few can be bought up from Israel when they phase them out.

[tom d. friedman]

ALMOST!! anything post vietnam & most definetely anything desert storm to post desert storm will NOT!! be flying in private john q. six pack hands in 50 years. the defense dept is de-milling everything to the point of ridiculous & the 9/11 terror issue isn't even a factor!! they'd spend a thousand bucks to cut an f- 15 eagle rivet in half if they deem it necessary. don't get me wrong i'm 500% for national security, *&^%$#@!? the damned terrorists!! keep them hobbled 24 / 7, but there is no way that non sensitive airplane junk from these eras will be threat to the world population. on the other hand, & to stick to the issue, no foundation or trillionaire will be able to legally or financially keep up the operational up keep of a post 90's era military aircraft in 50 yrs due to current policy & cost. best, tom

[Rob Mears]

I think a lot of the helicopter guys will be moving to the forefront before too much longer. Vietnam is becoming ancient history and the veterans from that era are quickly out numbering the surviving vets from WWII. It was an unpopular war at the time, but there's still tons of emotion tied to those old whirly birds. I can easily envision a lineup of twenty combat veteran UH-1's, a few AH-1 Cobras, OH-6's, some UH-34's, and a couple of CH-47 Chinooks or Jolly Greens (if there are any available). The airframes are out there, and I'm actually suprised that more Huey's aren't active on the scene. They're quite unique in the realm of historic aircraft and there are still combat airframes available by the dozen AFAIK.

I'm not sure if Army records are sufficient enough to tie particular airframes to particular battles, but if so, now would be the time for some budding historian to make research and publish the current whereabouts of various 'Nam choppers from the Ia Drang battle, the Saigon evacuation, etc. Sounds "ho-hum" to a large sect of warbird fans, but IMO it's an untapped resource that is destined to find a popular following in the decades to come.

BTW, I spotted a bright red Sikorsky H-34 loping along at about 300 AGL just north of Austin, Texas yesterday. Any idea who's operating the type in that area?

[Don Martin]

[Warhawk]

They are going to have to pedal a bit faster than that if they hope to get off the ground in the next fifty years Don. Those blades are barely turning.

In my own opinion I can say with some degree of accuracy that in fifty years birds will still be flying as well as bees. One might also see the odd bat here or there winging it's way about, along with various insects and such. Anything else is mere guess work and wishful thinking.

Can you tell I have a cold keeping me up all night and I'm bored?

[HarvardIV]

Can you tell I have a cold keeping me up all night and I'm bored?

If so post away all not to your heart's content.

[Warhawk]

Can you tell I have a cold keeping me up all night and I'm bored?

If so post away all not to your heart's content.

All not? Ok, here's me not posting anymore.

[Steve T]

What'll be flying in another half-century?

Well, assuming humanity doesn't simply grenade itself...I think what will still be on the airshow circuit, or whatever, by then, will be largely the "practical" stuff. L-birds; small helos; replicas galore (some of them more like "reincarnations": I expect the Seattle Me262s should all still be around). And there will, no doubt, be one or two megarich collectors who will still field originals...just as Shuttleworth still operates a few original WWI birds now. The fast jets, though, I can't see being a sane proposition once they're out of service--even now an F-4 or F-100 is a rare and wonderful sight at a show. These trends can already be seen emerging. What's heartening is that the interest is very obviously still there...even among enthusiasts like myself whose fiscal resources extend only as far as film and airshow or museum admission and a small library gathered over the years...and whose rebuilds never go beyond about 1:32 scale!

S.

[Warren_C]

Being an ex-Tomcat mechanic I would love to see an F-14 fly under civilian ownership. However, the realist in me thinks this is highly doubtful. If it were to happen, the operational costs, and the neccessary support equipment would probably limit this endeavor to an organization like Collings. I don't know what it takes to keep the F4 operational, but if I remember correctly the F-14 maintenance rule of thumb was "60 maintenance manhours for every flight hour". Finally, you would have to find an airshow willing to pick-up the tab on a couple of fill ups of JP-5, 19,000 lbs of go juice would get a little pricey.

Warren C
VF-124 Gunfighters (1985-88)
Plane Captain / TF-30 Safety Wire Specialist

[HarvardIV]

All not? Ok, here's me not posting anymore.

Oops, all not don't mean a thing. I meant all night..

[bdk]

Iran still has F-14s, and a collector can go over there and get one in 20 years if our military doesn't wipe them out in the mean time.

Also, many many countries have F-16s, it's possible the the FAA will allow a procured import Viper fly as well.

I don't think civilians can import supersonic jets into the US any longer (import moratorium).

[TimAPNY]

I think it would take a lot of work to reprogram the computers and key systems to the aircraft. I was an avionics tech (AT) on FA-18 and the aircraft had two flight computers, two mission computers and a central computer for all communications and displays and all the MUX buses that are needed between them. Keeping those in working order isn’t that easy. Even when you have a dozen in the supply system that are “in working order”.

I found that the man-hours pre flight hour was a joke. We basically made sure that we each had our 12 hours accounted for in paper work. Also half the systems a civilian would not need and could not get, Weapon systems, release and control checks, ECM. T-FLIR. Radar. IFF…

I can’t even comprehend that someone would be able to afford the cost of keeping a modern jet in the air. But I can’t see how someone can afford keeping a WW2 fighter in the air.