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Very very very few will be able to afford an F-16 , F-18 or F-15 when these are all retired as the level of cost are on another much higher level again. For example where is a flying example of an F-14 now , can you even buy any of these aircraft in the future or will they be all shredded ?
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Piston engined and early jet warbirds are still in the realms of a moderately wealthy person to maintain both financially and technically, some of these later jets some GOVERNMENTS can't afford to fund the running costs and maintenance !
I think we will see three effects combine to ensure we dont see these 2nd and 3rd generation jet fighters enter private ownership and warbird activities.
Firstly the US Government appears to reserving disposal control on not only its own examples but also those sold to allies, I suspect few will be sold intact in the future, and even static examples for museums may be more difficult to obtain than the surplus aircraft after WW2 or the disposal of 1st and 2nd generation jets.
Secondly I think the technical support will be much harder, both in access to expertise and spare parts, but also in relation to manufacturer and regulator certification support and airframe component life.
Finally the operating costs in simple fuel burn per hour will limit the few likely operators to a handful of very rich enthusiasts, this will not be a repeat of the war suplus T6 and Mustang environment that started the modern warbird movement.
Getting back on topic, in Australia the owner of a private historic building can be restrained from altering or damaging it if listed on the historic register, and regulated through planning permits in terms of authorised modifications and restorations.
I do wonder if the same will eventually be extended to moveable cultural heritage, we have laws that stop certain objects from being exported by new owners, but not from being dragged out into a paddock and set alight by their existing owner?
I think it would be reasonable for a Government to compulsorily acquire an aircraft (or other cultural heritage object) of such great historic importance that it was considered of impending risk in the hands of its current owner, and protect it for future generations, and obviously there would need to be full financial compensation to the affected owner.
However I think the number of aircraft (and other cultural heritage objects) that could fall into that category would be very few indeed, and such legal outcomes will never realistically develop, as the portfolio risk is not large enough to encourage any such legislation, and by the time any single object's risk was so great and real to encourage such legislation, that object would already be a cremated pile of soot in the paddock before any law was passed, let alone invoked.
The more logical outcome is for National Museum's to buy them through market forces, as they become available, or through making an offer "that cant be resisted", and place them in public collections, which does happen today already.
regards
Mark Pilkington