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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 6:06 pm 
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Invader26 wrote:
Digressing:

]

from Howie Keefe: - Aviation Legend --

I doubt the loss of an elevator trim caused Jimmy to dive in. At those speeds, we usually have a slight nose down trim. What might have happened is that if the trim blew off and he suddenly started to climb at what I called the Devil's Corner** it distracted him enough that caused him to go wide on the turn and in trying to get back as to not over fly the deadline ahead, he pulled back too hard and went into a high speed stall that, as one witness said, looked like he went into an involuntary lomcevak ( a somersault.)

I had that going wide at Devil's corner and choose to go behind the stands once and be disqualified rather then risk a high speed stall trying a tight turn to get back before the deadline came up. Cutting the deadline (a line down the center of the runway that starts where the stands start, not down where the pits start) that in all air shows the FAA says must be 2,000 feet away from the crowd line, can cost you not only being disqualified, but also the FAA may cancel your license. But going behind the stands is considered by the FAA as making a wise decision, but, naturally you have to be disqualified for leaving the race course in that particular race.



Howie Keefe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV0nMJvnhz8


No disrespect at all towards Mr. Keefe, as he as infinitely more knowledge about racing and flying the P-51 than I will ever have...but this is not how I recall the accident happening from my vantage point which was directly in front of where GG pulled up. From my memory (granted eyewitness testimony is terribly unreliable, and I was pretty shook up after the incident) the pull up was way to abrupt to have been a mayday induced climb. There also was not a mayday call reported, and he pulled towards the crowd. It did not appear to me that he 'overshoot the turn' from my recollection he was basically in level flight when he rocked from one side to the other and shot skyward....


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 6:17 pm 
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Invader26 wrote:
Digressing:

It will take a year or two [at least ] for the investigations to conclude. If Reno is re-run it would not be before 2013/14 at the minimum. No insurer will cover them without a thorough risk analysis and things in place to prevent future losses. Remember that the insurance industry is NOT interested in air racing.


Very good point. RARA had 5million dollars of primary coverage and 95 million dollars of excess liability coverage on the event...split between three insurers, U.S Specialty, Starnet Insurance and Lloyds of London according to the insurance certificate in the local RNO newspaper. I am sure this will entirely be eaten up in settlements/litigation over the 60 injured and 11 so far identified as killed. Not to mention the claims that will be filed for emotional distress. Many of those injured have life altering injuries that a friendly jury is going to heavily compensate for if it goes trial.

I don't know much about the insurance business, but I do know that there are only a couple of underwriters who will touch warbirds these days, U.S. Specialty being one (over the years I have been insured with them many times). This type of loss is so much more than the typical warbird accident that it is likely to lead to increased premiums or leaving the warbird business altogether.

I remember a few years ago after a rash of L-39 accidents leading up to NWOC the principal underwriter for U.S. Specialty pointing out that if there was another fatal jet warbird accident that year that they would likely get out of the jet warbird insurance business.

Makes you wonder what they are thinking now...warbird aviation is only a small part of their portfolio from what I understand....

Given there are few companies that would cover this event in the first place, makes you wonder who would be left...and the premium cost of those that are left....


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 7:06 pm 
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Tim, you are correct that mostly any next move is dictated by the insurers. They break up their insurance funding into pools and simply look at the "money in vs. the money out" for that pool. Cross subsidies are not where they want to be in general so a few bucks in from warbirds etc vs. lots out is not attractive.

Also standby for lawyers to go after the officials and others involved personally. Hopefully RARA has PI insurance there...


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Thu Sep 22, 2011 11:10 pm 
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Invader26 wrote:
Digressing:

It will take a year or two [at least ] for the investigations to conclude. If Reno is re-run it would not be before 2013/14 at the minimum. No insurer will cover them without a thorough risk analysis and things in place to prevent future losses. Remember that the insurance industry is NOT interested in air racing.

One could possibly make a case for "low energy" classes like F1/Biplane/T-6 but jets and unlimiteds as we've seen are high kinetic energy 'weapons' if they go out of control.

Comparing air racing to motor racing isn't valid. Cars/bikes/boats can't as a rule access the public these days. An aircraft racer is a "free agent" and not a control-line model.


Here's a note rom the great Howie Keefe - the original Miss America..

from Howie Keefe: - Aviation Legend --

I doubt the loss of an elevator trim caused Jimmy to dive in. At those speeds, we usually have a slight nose down trim. What might have happened is that if the trim blew off and he suddenly started to climb at what I called the Devil's Corner** it distracted him enough that caused him to go wide on the turn and in trying to get back as to not over fly the deadline ahead, he pulled back too hard and went into a high speed stall that, as one witness said, looked like he went into an involuntary lomcevak ( a somersault.)

I had that going wide at Devil's corner and choose to go behind the stands once and be disqualified rather then risk a high speed stall trying a tight turn to get back before the deadline came up. Cutting the deadline (a line down the center of the runway that starts where the stands start, not down where the pits start) that in all air shows the FAA says must be 2,000 feet away from the crowd line, can cost you not only being disqualified, but also the FAA may cancel your license. But going behind the stands is considered by the FAA as making a wise decision, but, naturally you have to be disqualified for leaving the race course in that particular race.

** I called it the Devil's Corner, because it is the only pylon turn on the race course where if you go wide, you have to immediately decide to make the Devil's Decision of going behind the stands or risk a high speed stall to get back before the deadline starts. What makes it a critical point is that the turn comes at the end of a straightaway where you are going your fastest--its easily a mile long and you are going "downhill" from about a 200' higher altitude that adds to your "flat & level" speed---really screaming. In my 11 years of Unlimited Air Racing at Reno, I must have come at that pylon over 500 times reminding myself to start my turn at least 3 seconds before getting there so as not to go too wide. Being distracted in those few seconds is critical.

I recall one race where Bob Hoover, who flew the pace plane to start our races and after the start flew overhead to keep an eye out for any problems, uncharacteristically dropped down on the race course flying at normal speed. I came upon him about a half-mile short of Devil's Corner and called out for him to hold his course because I was going to pass and make a turn right in front of him. He immediately left the course and later apologized.

Howie Keefe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV0nMJvnhz8


I have been biting my tongue about that. I have been looking at the photos going: If the trim tab caused it, why did it only break off "AFTER" he was inverted and on the downside of the roll, AND if it DID break off - would it affect the elevator, now that flutter was gone and airflow going straight back? ( not assuming anything ) just curious. It just doesn't calculate in my little pea brain of mine.


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 12:52 am 
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Paul Krumrei wrote:
I have been biting my tongue about that. I have been looking at the photos going: If the trim tab caused it, why did it only break off "AFTER" he was inverted and on the downside of the roll, AND if it DID break off - would it affect the elevator, now that flutter was gone and airflow going straight back? ( not assuming anything ) just curious. It just doesn't calculate in my little pea brain of mine.



Here's the mistake everyone seems to be making. Just because the trim tab itself did not depart the aircraft until the apex of the roll, does not mean that the trim mechanism/linkage did not fail first. All it takes is for the linkage to fail and the tab goes neutral, causing the elevators to go neutral, causing the aircraft to suddenly have nothing counteracting the power/lift up front. The tab itself may have busted and been flapping in the breeze up until it finally departed the aircraft during the roll.

Think of a tire blowing on a semi truck when the retread goes....it starts peeling and flaps around and around before finally flying off the truck when it comes totally separated. But the failure started way before it flew off the wheel.

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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 3:53 am 
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There are mishapes in all forms of sports. Haven't foot ball bleachers broken and killed and injured many?
Here is one I found.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_tVDH2Z ... re=related
Looks like a car race though.
Then there are the riots and out of control fans at ball sports events, how many are injured and or die from that? I think Reno had a good recond of zero spectator injurys, till last friday.
Then there is the sudden unexplained deaths of young ball sports players. Does that mean that all such sports should not be allowed? What about the airline disasters? When hundreds are killed or injured, does that mean all air travel should be halted because people get hurt and can die from it?

Slow the unlimiteds down????? Naaa slow the jets down.


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:48 am 
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Speedy wrote:
Paul Krumrei wrote:
I have been biting my tongue about that. I have been looking at the photos going: If the trim tab caused it, why did it only break off "AFTER" he was inverted and on the downside of the roll, AND if it DID break off - would it affect the elevator, now that flutter was gone and airflow going straight back? ( not assuming anything ) just curious. It just doesn't calculate in my little pea brain of mine.



Here's the mistake everyone seems to be making. Just because the trim tab itself did not depart the aircraft until the apex of the roll, does not mean that the trim mechanism/linkage did not fail first. All it takes is for the linkage to fail and the tab goes neutral, causing the elevators to go neutral, causing the aircraft to suddenly have nothing counteracting the power/lift up front. The tab itself may have busted and been flapping in the breeze up until it finally departed the aircraft during the roll.

Think of a tire blowing on a semi truck when the retread goes....it starts peeling and flaps around and around before finally flying off the truck when it comes totally separated. But the failure started way before it flew off the wheel.


Makes more sense now. Thanks for the clarification!


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:51 am 
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Speedy wrote:
Paul Krumrei wrote:
I have been biting my tongue about that. I have been looking at the photos going: If the trim tab caused it, why did it only break off "AFTER" he was inverted and on the downside of the roll, AND if it DID break off - would it affect the elevator, now that flutter was gone and airflow going straight back? ( not assuming anything ) just curious. It just doesn't calculate in my little pea brain of mine.



Here's the mistake everyone seems to be making. Just because the trim tab itself did not depart the aircraft until the apex of the roll, does not mean that the trim mechanism/linkage did not fail first. All it takes is for the linkage to fail and the tab goes neutral, causing the elevators to go neutral, causing the aircraft to suddenly have nothing counteracting the power/lift up front. The tab itself may have busted and been flapping in the breeze up until it finally departed the aircraft during the roll.

Think of a tire blowing on a semi truck when the retread goes....it starts peeling and flaps around and around before finally flying off the truck when it comes totally separated. But the failure started way before it flew off the wheel.


One more stupid question from me. From all the conversations going on about this, it is not true that they do not use the trim tabs in the unlimited class? (Like I said, just hearing and seeing comments on that) Then again, I guess if the linkage just broke that makes sense as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:06 am 
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Not a pilot, but in looking at pics from the valley on Monday and Tuesday, you could see Jimmy's tab deflected, you could see both of Voodoo's deflected, while on Strega you could see nothing, basically in a nuetral position.

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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:29 am 
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Tim Adams wrote:
Not a pilot, but in looking at pics from the valley on Monday and Tuesday, you could see Jimmy's tab deflected, you could see both of Voodoo's deflected, while on Strega you could see nothing, basically in a nuetral position.


Strega's "X" factor.... :-)

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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:33 am 
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It seems inaccurate to describe Jimmy Leeward as a "stunt pilot." Checking Wikipedia for other pilots maybe he should be called a "Race Pilot", Airshow pilot, or U.S. Aviator.
Honestly, I think he made his living first as a Real Estate Developer and then as a pilot. Also he competed in 120 races and film credits for three movies. When comparing to Frank Tallman, Art Scholl, Paul Mantz, Leo Loudenslager, Paul Poberezny, and other extraordinary aviatiors, it just seems stunt pilot is a little demeaning to a fairly conservative, steady pilot.


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:36 am 
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Because "STUNT PILOT DIES IN HORRIFIC CRASH" sells more papers than 'real Estate developer killed in plane crash' The big, loud headline sells more papers and Joe Lunchbox wouldn't even glance twice @ the other and might wonder why it's on the front page and not in the Business section.

It's the difference between 'Sizzle' and 'Steak' and, the press isn't exactly known for getting all the points in order before running off yelling 'FIRE, RAPE, MURDER', and we tend to run counter to what seems to be the Presses defined and never ending job of making everyone dumber than a sack of doorknobs, just read some of the comments posted by idiots on YAHOO's headline news page about the accident and you'll quickly see what the 'average' American thinks about the accident and it causes.

'We' involved in aviation tend to understand and can do some deductive reasoning, the average John Q. Public possibly understands more about his lawnmower than what the Newtonian principles involved in aviation are.

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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 10:59 am 
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Paul Krumrei wrote:
I have been biting my tongue about that. I have been looking at the photos going: If the trim tab caused it, why did it only break off "AFTER" he was inverted and on the downside of the roll, AND if it DID break off - would it affect the elevator, now that flutter was gone and airflow going straight back? ( not assuming anything ) just curious. It just doesn't calculate in my little pea brain of mine.


Control rod snapped as it pulled up (or just before) tab flutters & the bolts fail a bit later & it falls off?

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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 11:49 am 
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This is all they posted? I could have told you all of this information!




NTSB Identification: WPR11MA454
14 CFR Part 91: General Aviation
Accident occurred Friday, September 16, 2011 in Reno, NV
Aircraft: NORTH AMERICAN/AERO CLASSICS P-51D, registration: N79111
Injuries: 11 Fatal, 66 Serious

This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed.
On September 16, 2011, about 1626 Pacific daylight time, an experimental North America P-51D, N79111, impacted terrain following a loss of control while maneuvering at Reno Stead Airport, Reno, Nevada. The airplane was registered to Aero-Trans Corp, Ocala, Florida, and operated by the pilot as Race 177 under the provisions of 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91. The commercial pilot sustained fatal injuries; the airplane sustained substantial damage. Casualties on the ground included 10 fatalities and 74 injured. As of the time of this preliminary report, eight of the injured remain hospitalized, some in critical condition. Visual meteorological conditions prevailed at the time of the accident, and no flight plan had been filed for the local air race flight, which departed from Reno Stead Airport about 10 minutes before the accident.

The airplane was participating in the Reno National Championship Air Races in the last event of the day. The airplane had completed several laps and was in a steep left turn towards the home pylon when, according to photographic evidence, the airplane suddenly banked momentarily to the left before banking to the right, turning away from the race course, and pitching to a steep nose-high attitude. Witnesses reported and photographic evidence indicates that a piece of the airframe separated during these maneuvers. After roll and pitch variations, the airplane descended in an extremely nose-low attitude and collided with the ground in the box seat area near the center of the grandstand seating area.

Investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the Federal Aviation Administration examined the wreckage on site. They documented the debris field and identified various components of the airplane's control system and control surfaces. The wreckage was removed to a secure storage facility for detailed examination at a later date.

The airplane's ground crew noted that the airplane had a telemetry system that broadcast data to a ground station as well as recorded it to a box on board the airplane. The crew provided the ground station telemetry data, which includes engine parameters and global positioning satellite system data to the NTSB for analysis. The onboard data box, which sustained crush damage, was sent to the NTSB's Vehicle Recorder laboratory for examination. Investigators recovered pieces of a camera housing and multiple detached memory cards from the airplane's onboard camera that were in the debris field. The memory cards and numerous still and video image recordings were also sent to the Vehicle Recorders laboratory for evaluation.

The Federal Aviation Administration and the Reno Air Race Association are parties to the investigation.


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 Post subject: Re: Is Reno history?
PostPosted: Fri Sep 23, 2011 11:50 am 
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