Has the Cessna L-19/O-1 Market Collapsed

[L-4Pilot]

The L-19 is one of my favorite aircraft and always will be. However as I have reached my mid sixties I realize I am not the same pilot I was when I was in my 30's and 40's and flying 200 hours a year. It is different once you go from not needing glasses to wearing tri-focals and some aircraft just are not a easy to get in and out of anymore.

As we began our latest project two years ago we listed many of the things we wanted in our next aircraft.

1. Would like to have another Warbird with choice of paint schemes,
2. Tricycle gear preferable for ease of landings, and entering and exiting. I could never put one of those "Granny steps on a L-19.
3. After multiple skin cancer surgeries we thought it best not to look for another aircraft with full greenhouse.
4. Cruise speed of at least 115 to 120 mph with ample room for luggage and option to operate as two or four seats.
5. Cruise fuel burn of under 10 GPH.
6. Fuel injection and constant speed prop would be a plus.
7. IFR with center stack radios, auto pilot, HSI would be a plus.
8. Fuel range over 4 hours at cruise
9. Engine and air frame parts easy to find at reasonable cost.
10. Reasonable insurance rates.
11. An aircraft my wife can fly and land.

I would love to have another L-19, just not in the cards for me any more as I enter my Golden years.

[menards]

When working with a new tailwheel student, I usually describe what we are flying and what they want to buy in a sort of tier system. Tier 1 = Cubs, Champs, Taylorcrafts, Tier 2 = Decathlons, Chipmunks,SuperCubs, etc. Tier 3 = L-19's, Pawnees , C-188 Agtrucks, Fairchild 24's, 220 Stearmans, Maule M-5s, and so forth. A T-6 would be a tier 5 or 6, Mustang=7. Never thought too much about it but Tier 10 would be aircraft like the Mosquito, F-82, C-46, Me-109. Aircraft that if you aren't on your game, they will get torn up almost for sure.
A few times I've skipped steps or trained a new owner that is trying to skip a few rungs on the ladder( to save themselves money and time.). It takes twice as long to get them proficient and their recidivism rate is twice as fast as a student that methodically worked their way up the ladder and built the skill and judgement to fly their new toy.
A person who is a "Tier 1" pilot attempting to fly a Tier 3 ,or a Tier 3 pilot trying to fly a Tier 7 taildragger explains a vast number of tailwheel accidents.

HMMMMM....is that why USAAF pilot training usually went something to the tune of 1) 70ish hours in a PT-22; 2) 70ish hours in a BT-13; 3) 80ish hours in a AT-6 before getting into more advanced fighters??

[DanteC]

L-4Pilot, sent you a PM

[Joe Scheil]

Interesting thread, and perhaps high time for this one on the WIX.

The L-19, or any of these "markets" are casualties of the steady decline in pilots nationwide, and the current fact that very few people will choose to fly airplanes in the future. I have been a professional pilot for 16 years, and would have never expected to see what we are seeing today in the regional airline world as far as pilot hiring. There is nobody out there. Hardly anyone is choosing this as a career, and that is the bedrock of General Aviation participation. Airshows and fly ins thirty plus years ago were full of restored Staggerwings and Howards, Navions and even L-19's. Today there arent really any of those anymore. The fly-ins are gone, and the ones that remain have diminished to the point that few spectators come out anymore either. Why is this?

Flying, or a life in aviation is a rare choice because it takes a lot of work and effort to become a pilot. Further, not everyone that tries succeeds for a variety of reasons. Those that do, should they choose to keep moving "up the ladder" must continue to learn and focus on the specifics of the next type of aircraft or rating, and continue to pass. For all there will be a ceiling, where that is is tough to discern sometimes, but it happens. Today what is notable is few try. It has never been easier to become a pilot. Never. This is the best time that I have ever seen. Still nobody is really showing up.

For the new hires at the airline here, virtually none have tailwheel endorsements, seaplane ratings or a desire to own and fly their own plane beyond idle dreaming. Something like an L-19 is a complete abstraction. They don't know what it is, why it was built and what the reason for the fact that it only has one other seat. Working on airplanes and searching for parts is a huge part of the fun of warbirds, but its not an easy thing, and those that want to do it are rare. Those who have a place to do it are rarer still.

While few here would want a new Cirrus SR-22, how many people want to buy one? A few. What do they cost? Perhaps $600,000 with all the bells shined brand new. And then when they have their new plane and look for a hangar in a metropolitan area they are told that hangars are a three year wait or more and they have to use a tie down or go do an airport 55 minutes away. How many folks buy a new Ferrari convertible and then park it on the street because they have no garage? Another point is thus that General Aviation has always restricted supply of hangars and other infrastructure, in order to avoid a glut or collapse in prices on hangars and facilities. Mission accomplished. But its hard to get excited about an L-19 when you realize you have to go on a tie down or have to buy or sublease a hangar at some crazy high rate. Hangar in Southern California $1000 a month. Hangar in San Marco Texas, not much different right now. Rents are going up because there aren't as many airplanes! They need to hit their targets for rent! So interestingly my hangar rent went from 400 to 1000 dollars in one year. Amazing.

The P-51 is for the short term immune from this, and perhaps for the long term. Many buyers aren't concerned with professional pilot jobs, and enjoy a lot of toys. But the bedrock of Warbird aviation is the yeoman types. Stearmans, T-6 and L-19's. Waco's and Staggerwings and the antiques are also to some another way in. There are few buyers. And that is for whole airplanes. Projects? Who would do that? I realize that my Stearman project will cost a large amount to restore, but if I finish in 2020, what would it be worth? There wont be anyone rated to fly it perhaps by that point that would want to even allow me to break even in cost. A sobering discovery.

Lets look at the WIX lastly. How many of us are here that love airplanes? How many of us fly airplanes. How many of us OWN airplanes. Probably a high percentage. But its still a percentage. Why doesn't everyone at airshows, who spends thousands on cameras or RC models or starts at IPMS model contests transition to real planes? What was different about the few that did?

I have a good job, and I am in the process of getting the best one for me. The job search is hard, but finding the company that you want to pair with is a hard fight. I am hoping my job search is over and I have that "Last Job" that I can take to retirement. I simply love the airlines for the security some of them can give you, and you get to fly all day (and some nights) to boot. But I spend a lot of time away. And my money goes into airplanes. I won't have a big house because of it. I have chosen three airplanes to go through life with so far, and that financial decision is a big one. It means I have made choices about things I won't have. I would love an L-19. But there are a lot of other beautiful airplanes out there too. I can only "afford" (not the correct word) three (assuming a Spitfire project does not fall into my lap). I'm doing great. But I am a rarity in my airliner. Few I fly with have the passion.

Airplane values will decrease and the legions of airplanes that are leaving us now will not be replaced. Its sad L-129 values are dropping, but sadder still that old 150's 152's and 172's are being parted or scrapped for lack of interest in simple repairs. The bedrock of general aviation is disappearing. Want to fix this? Then those of you that are out there, on the couch or in a chair who have an interest need to devote your time and effort into an investment. Invest in yourself. Save that Cessna 150 and restore it to factory colors. Learn to fly it. Travel in in and learn about the courage and strength you never knew about that was inside you all along. Find that 182. Move up into a Bonanza. Try out a Champ and then a Citabria. Then go find and save the plane that you want. And along the way encourage and help others do the same...

[Joe Scheil]

Nuimbers to think about.

Flyable Warbirds by type (estimates)

Stearman perhaps 500? of the PT/N2S series. Perhaps another 500 survivors that are out of annual or under restoration. Perhaps ?
more in museums Worldwide?

T-6/SNJ, perhaps another 700? Projects?

L-19 How many?
J-3 Cub
Stinson L-5

Number of pilots that start flight training is a hard number to discern. this is from Wiki... But remember the FAA cannot tell you how many active pilots there are or airplanes. They dont have the data. Remeber they tax airoplanes too. So full disclosure may not be in everyone's interest. Professional pilots are the majority. The student pilot certificates is a misnomer because they dont seem to drop them off the list when they fail to complete or simply stop trying. This is where the L-19 buyers come from.

So as a corralary, how many car owners own vintage cars? A small percentage. Perhaps the same ratios apply. In your neighborhood how many garages have great old cars in them? 2 percent? Thats the ratio of ATP's to vintage aircraft buyers perhaps...
Food for thought...

As of the end of 2014, in the US, there were an estimated 593,499 active certificated pilots.[19] This number has been declining gradually over the past several decades, down from a high of over 827,000 pilots in 1980. There were 702,659 in 1990 and 625,581 in 2000. The numbers include:

120,546 student pilots (128,663 in 1990 and 93,064 in 2000)
220 recreational pilots (87 in 1990 and 340 in 2000)
5,157 sport pilots (did not exist until 2005)
174,883 private pilots (299,111 in 1990 and 251,561 in 2000)
104,322 commercial pilots (149,666 in 1990 and 121,858 in 2000)
152,933 airline transport pilots (107,732 in 1990 and 141,596 in 2000)
19,927 glider-only pilots (9,567 in 1990 and 7,775 in 2000)
15,511 rotorcraft-(helicopter)-only pilots (7,833 in 1990 and 9,387 in 2000)
554,177 male pilots end of 2014
39,322 female pilots end of 2014
These numbers are based on the highest certifications held by individual pilots.

The numbers also include:

100,993 certificated flight instructors (CFIs) (63,775 in 1990 and 80,931 in 2000)
306,066 pilots overall who held instrument ratings (297,073 in 1990 and 311,944 in 2000)
An active pilot is defined as one who holds both a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate, for certifications that require a medical certificate.

[Ken]

Joe,

Thoughtful, thorough, and, by and large, correct; worthy of its own thread.

Ken

[Dave Downs]

I too have wondered bout the lack of pilot starts. Without getting too controversial I think part of it may be a new social attitude towards 'safe things'. I had always dreamed of flying when I was a little kid but never had the self confidence to try until I got off US Army active duty in 1965. In the Army I learned a lot about myself and matured by being challenged in way I never had before. With that new-found confidence I started flying.

The day you solo it is all on your shoulders - you can die in an airplane and I've had several friends do exactly that. Today we discourage anything risky.

In 1968 I flew my two sisters (one with a newborn) to Binghamton NY from Doylestown PA, I had less than 70 hours total. Years later my mother remarked that she stood there and watched her whole family fly away.... at the time I thought nothing of it.

So much has changed since then.

Maybe I'm just a grumpy old man.

[L-4Pilot]

Joe, thanks for your posts. I have been flying and restoring aircraft for 40 years and have personally witnessed what you have pointed out in your posts. However, some of us still plod along restoring these old aircraft and the thanks we get from old Veterans who do come to the Flyins and Airshows make it worth while.

I also enjoy the younger adults and children who stop by and want to know about the aircraft and the history and make a point to always be available with material to "show and tell" as part of the education process. These restored aircraft are living history and need to be flown and made available to everyone to see and learn.

Joe, you are correct about diminishing numbers of vintage aircraft being shown at events and many of us that still do receive no compensation for fuel, lodging, rental cars, meals etc. All of our expenses are paid out of our own pockets. We continue to do it out of a love for aviation and the opportunity to share it with others. In addition, while some non-profit organizations are compensated to appear at shows and other events, those appearances are only made possible by the member volunteers who work tirelessly without pay using up vacation time and spending a large portion of their retirement years to support their organization.

Restoring and showing these old military aircraft is expensive and time consuming and I hope we never see the day when there is no one left who wants to do it and the only place you will find a vintage aircraft is in a museum.

[Cvairwerks]

QU-22....meets everything but the 10 gph fuel burn.

[L-4Pilot]

QU-22....meets everything but the 10 gph fuel burn.

Roger that and a rare bird indeed.

[JohnB]

QU-22....meets everything but the 10 gph fuel burn.

In an earlier post it was mentioned one of the possible issues with O-1 ownership is parts availability.

I would imagine the geared engine of the Beech is neither common or inexpensive.
And insurance for a low-mid time pilot might be an issue in a high performance retractable.

[Mark Allen M]

A really fantastic thread ... better than my old boring photo threads lol

I've been a private pilot since 1992 when I got "my ticket" in Santa Barbara CA from a South African flight instructor. He was the very best and knew how to "teach" and a great guy. I had a lot of fun learning from him. My dad was quite good as a teacher as well.
Back then it was roughly $100.00 per hour to fly the Cessna's I was flying and you had to top off your Cessna when you returned. Always a battle to get the Cessna you enjoyed flying the most as they were rentals. Very expensive at that time I always thought, but today it's much more. I understand why, but it doesn't help the matter that "Private Aviation" is seriously expensive and unless you have a true passion for flying , you won't last and your interest will drop significantly if you don't stay with it. There's so many variables that contribute to one losing interest in flying that I won't bore you with it here, but the ultimate reason IMO is, and always has been, $$$$$. It's just simply expensive to fly period. Now I understand there are ways to curb the expense a bit, but usually that takes a combination of time, location, contributing effort to whatever group or organization you join, sharing of PIC time etc. ... and again that effort will always come down to just how willing you are and how much passion you have for flying. In my opinion, you either have the everlasting bug for flying or you don't. There seems to be no middle ground. This is what I think I know anyway.

my 2 cents.

Here's an interesting read ...

http://blog.aopa.org/opinionleaders/201 ... n-anymore/

[Russ Blow]

I can't speak for the L 19 but I have owned my L 4 since 2010. It was fully restored and had just received judges choice at Oshkosh. I actually bought it off eBay for 29k. The aircraft burns about 4 gph annuals cost under 700 a year and insurance costs under 700 a year. Since I bought it I have logged just over 400 hours in it. Without a doubt it's the most fun I have ever had flying.

So while probably the lowest rung on the warbird ladder it is still a warbird. It attracts attention and it is always an honor to explain to people what it is and what it did in WW 2. They are also light sport and I am not aware of any other warbird that is. I guess the point I am trying to make is their are some L Birds out there you can get into for a reasonable amount and actually be able to afford to go out and fly the thing. Well if you call 65 mph and a 130 mile range flying. I do and have no regrets.

That said I still dream of owning that P 51 one day!

[hbtcoveralls]

High end warbirds will continue to have buyers, but at the low end I think we're still seeing the effects of the global financial meltdown from 2007. The people who would purchase "warbugs" are the people that the financial crisis hit particularly hard and many haven't gotten back to where they were before. The lower end of the warbird market is more likely to be a small business man, or professional who has some disposable income and investments. A lot of small businesses closed, real estate values tanked, assets and investments vanished, all making it hard to justify buying into a warbird. There will always be the deep pockets guys who are well insulated from the ups and downs of the economy, but at the lower end is where people are still hurting and find it hard to justify dropping 70 or 80K on any airplane let alone a warbird
Tom Bowers

[Cvairwerks]

QU-22....meets everything but the 10 gph fuel burn.

In an earlier post it was mentioned one of the possible issues with O-1 ownership is parts availability.

I would imagine the geared engine of the Beech is neither common or inexpensive.
And insurance for a low-mid time pilot might be an issue in a high performance retractable.

Cessna 404 and 421B and C use GTSIO-520's. I'd have to look at the data sheets to see what is different about a -G engine.