P-51 Market analysis

[Speeddemon651]

It's been my life long dream/obsession to own an airworthy P-51 someday. So much so, that I can't begin to amount what I've sacrificed or even count the endless hours I've worked to get near or even be close to the spectrum of saving to where it would be feasible one day.

Needless to say, I'm still nowhere near even a down payment yet and I've been working 2 full time jobs (80 hrs a week) for 7 years.
I commute 142 miles a day (M-F) and if I'm lucky I get 5 hr sleep a night. (Most nights its closer to 4.5)
I come from next to nothing and are from a small town you've defiantly never heard of. So it's safe to say no trust fund here.
I'm hours away from the closest warbird museum and have never had the opportunity to be involved in the community other than, well here.

With that said, the people in the warbird community that I've interacted with, are some of the nicest, most interesting and enthusiastic people I've ever met. Warbirds aren't really a hobby, I would more categorize them as a sickness or disease. Once bitten by the bug it's next to impossible to get them out of your system and if you do, it's typically only for a period of time that I've seen.

I had the opportunity a decade ago to be responsible and buy a house or my first warbird and lets just say I'm still renting. Owning a P-51 one day isn't a question of if, it's just a matter of when for me. That's one thing that is great about America, P-51 ownership isn't something impossible for the average person, it's just a matter of how bad you want it. I believe I'm somewhat of an outlier though, being 32 years old.

v/r
JWH

[phil65]

There is a lot of people like you here at Pratt. They work 24/7 to buy a toy, then have at work 24/7 to maintain it.
I would rather work 40 hrs and have a house and a J-3 Cub, and have time to enjoy them.

Don't take this the wrong way, but try not to kill yourself from lack of sleep driving to your second job.

Phil

[Speeddemon651]

There is a lot of people like you here at Pratt. They work 24/7 to buy a toy, then have at work 24/7 to maintain it.
I would rather work 40 hrs and have a house and a J-3 Cub, and have time to enjoy them.

Don't take this the wrong way, but try not to kill yourself from lack of sleep driving to your second job.

Phil

I forgot to mention, in the past decade I've also managed to tuck away a few other warbirds as well but defiantly no fighters.
I have a 1945 L-4J that I love to buzz around in as well.

[Avnut]

The Mustang is an impressive and beautiful aircraft. Who would not want to own one. In my dreams of winning the lottery, and which aircraft I want for my dream hanger, I would take the Thunder Mustang instead. Better performance with less than half the cost to own and operate.

Thunder Mustang.
http://www.thundermustang.com

[JohnB]

A comparison between high-performance warbirds and vintage cars was made earlier, something which to me has always been like comparing apples and bananas:

Please note I was referring to the school of thought that once the old guys die off warbirds will drop in value. I wasn't comparing the entire market.

2) Running costs of any restored vintage car are minimal compared with e.g. a P-51.

I made the same point

4) No fretting necessary regarding certification and stuff when remanufacturing vintage car spare parts.

True, but the restoration infrastructure...shop and equipment (lift, compressor, welder, hand tools, jacks, a complete metal shop with saws, lathe, milling machine, wood tools, sheet metal cutter and folder, parts cleaners, etc.), the usually overlooked general stuff still costs thousands to acquire. A friend just restored a 1914 Stutz Bearcat, he needed a similar shop plus had to get parts made. It's one thing to rebuild a 65 Mustang or 57 Chevy from a catalog, it's an entirely different experience to restore a Stutz, Dusenberg if you want to do it correctly...not just do something monkey-brained and drop a small block Chevy in everything.

So vintage cars will, relatively speaking, always command higher prices and be a better "investment" than any WW2 aircraft.

SOME cars, yes. There are plenty of stories out there about guys who bought a 427 Cobra/Mercedes Gullwing/or Daytona Coupe for $5,000 which is now worth millions, but for everyone one of those there are stories of someone who spent big money on a less desirable car because they simply liked it or it meant something to them and they'll never recouped their cost. At one of the Scottsdale auctions last month I met a guy who spent $200,000 to restore a early 60s Thunderbird, he sold it for $46,000. But he had doing the work and showing the car.

The modern generation has little time and little patience, instant results are required.

Again, a bit of a generalization. I know plenty of young guys in the old car and old airplane worlds that don't fit that mold. One guy is self taught and rebuilds old Mercedes, others are young A&P students from a missionary aviation school that spend countless hours helping a friend with his antiques/warbird.

[L-188]

sorry i wasnt referring to everyone, but there is a bunch of those types around

I'm assuming you don't attend airshows with what you're building/ restoring. Maybe there could be an event that wouldn't allow "enthusiasts" in attendance. The Antique Aircraft Association has a flyin out in Brodhead WI that doesn't allow public attendance.
Only members are allowed. Being only an enthusiast, I'm ignorant of how that would be accomplished in the warbird community. And it is easy to spot us. we're the ones who rubberneck and gawk at warbirds from the other side of the fence, and ask stupid questions. Not having any skin in the game, I've learned to keep my stupid questions to myself.
Having said all that, I can only imagine what its like to answer a question from someone who asks why your stars and bars are an 1/8th of an inch from where they should be, or the shade of paint isn't accurate for what was available in theatre in 1943. That must drive you nuts. I take my Dad's 1990 park ave, to car shows. Never been east of Texas, never seen a winter, very clean car. People ask me what i'm doing there, which to me is a stupid question. And all I've done is minor restoration, nothing like building/restoring a warbird.
Hope it all works out and someday you'll fly into an airshow I'm attending. If they'll let an enthusiast in that is.

[airnutz]

One Percenters...

Mebee we should get some ink done of a teardrop with wings in the corner of our eye for quick recognition?

[RacingMustang]

I don't see prices coming down ever, really. And if they do, it'll be because they're no longer flyable due to insurance regulations, liability, public image, pilot shortage, or the fuel going away. Every one of those is a real possibility and could single-handedly destroy the warbird world.

It is a bit frustrating for a young guy like me, willing to work. I fly tailwheel airplanes, but everything's so darn expensive, and so frustratingly elusive and exclusive. You literally have to be born into the world or have started in the 60s (back when they were cheap) in order to fly anything these days. Or have a load of money to burn. I don't grudge any of these people any of that - good for them! - but it's frustrating when they complain about lack of "young blood" and "up and coming pilots" when they act the way they do. Just go to Oshkosh...they won't even talk to you most of the time.

Which is why I'm slowly putting together plans to build/restore a P-51...it might never happen, but it has a heck of a lot more chance of happening than me getting to fly anything out there right now. And I'm fine with that. There's more to life than warbirds.

Last edited by RacingMustang on Mon Mar 06, 2017 4:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[marine air]

As much as I like P-51's, if you can't afford one there's really only a couple options. Myt most likely option would be to build a comparable aircraft and then maybe you get in with the right click and they extend the invitation to fly theirs. YOu could buy a Yak II project and convert it into a Yak-3. Don't know if the Mustang guys really like the Yak guys. My preference would be to scratch build a Spitfire. THe only airplane more in demand than the P-51. A mustang owner might trades ride with you to get a chance to see how a version of the Spitfire flies. At any rate the one JURCA plans built Spitfire seems to get invited to fly at airshows and always has a crowd around it.
My mentor, the late Col. James Haun flew 43 military aircraft by the end of WW II. He said the Spitfire was even more fun to fly than the P-51. The MK IX being his all time favorite.

[Ken]

Unless you simply MUST own your own Mustang, a case could be made to save your money with the alternate goal of setting up a travel fund to participate with a group or museum, like the CAF. (Ask an accountant, some of this may be tax-deductible.)

Let's say you spent 5 days per month over a 10-year period at a CAF Wing and each visit cost $1430 (air fare, hotel, rental car, meals). In one year you would spend $17,160 and, over 10 years, $171,600. Let's say the sponsorship of a T-6 and P-51 cost an additional $13,500; now the grand total is $185,100. Not enough? Round it up to $200,000.

$200K might seem high until you compare it to the acquisition cost of a $1.8M asset and the associated decade worth of insurance, fuel, oil, and other consumables to keep a P-51 hangared and happy.

It's also difficult to put a price tag on the ability to become involved sooner, rather than later; life is short. Just a thought.

(Disclaimer: this was an honest estimate presented to make a point, your mileage may vary)

[Speeddemon651]

Unless you already own a G model

[fiftycal]

I don't see prices coming down ever, really. And if they do, it'll be because they're no longer flyable due to insurance regulations, liability, public image, pilot shortage, or the fuel going away. Every one of those is a real possibility and could single-handedly destroy the warbird world.

It is a bit frustrating for a young guy like me, willing to work. I fly tailwheel airplanes, but everything's so darn expensive, and so frustratingly elusive and exclusive. You literally have to be born into the world or have started in the 60s (back when they were cheap) in order to fly anything these days. Or have a load of money to burn. I don't grudge any of these people any of that - good for them! - but it's frustrating when they complain about lack of "young blood" and "up and coming pilots" when they act the way they do. Just go to Oshkosh...they won't even talk to you most of the time.

Which is why I'm slowly putting together plans to build/restore a P-51...it might never happen, but it has a heck of a lot more chance of happening than me getting to fly anything out there right now. And I'm fine with that. There's more to life than warbirds.

do you want some 51 parts kits? (sheet metal)

[Speeddemon651]

PM sent

[Saville]

[quote="Ken"]Unless you simply MUST own your own Mustang,..........
/quote]

You know I've always love the P-51 and yes wanted to own one. But unless I hit Powerball it's not happening.

But if I'm really honest with myself, it's not the *owning* that is attractive....it's the *flying the P-51 solo*.
I own a Van's RV-8 and handle my own maintenace and upgrades etc and even a small plane with simplified common engines is enough to suck up a large portion of my free time

These days, insurance being what it is, you only get to fly someone else's 51 solo if you dedicate your life to getting lots of T-6 time and then work for places like Collins as a pilot. You won't get rich doing that - in fact it'll cost you a lot of money. And the slots are rare. And there's competition.

As I say, these days even if you take their training, places like Stallion 51 won't let you fly their 51's solo.
So other than that, if you want to fly one solo today you have to own one.

But you know, it didn't always used to be that way.

Just the other day I was thinking about picking up my RV-8 in Texas....Paris, Texas. The guy I bought it from lived near Junior Burchinall's old airport, and we drove past it and flew over it. So I google Burchinall and that led me to an Air Progress article I read in 1971 when I was a junior in College:

http://www.airbum.com/pireps/PirepMustangBurch.html

A couple of excerpts to blow your mind:

"Although he has a basic outline, the actual course has to be custom-tailored to the individual's needs. Basically, for $1,800 (Ed: sit down before you read the rest of this sentence. You won’t believe it!) you get 10 hours of Stearman time, 10 hours of T-6 (five front, five back), two hours of Mustang, a couple hours in the B-25 and two in the Bearcat (or four in the B-25 to try for a type rating). He gets students of all possible backgrounds, from 100 to 10,000 hours, and he tries to work up to the talent and experience level of the student. If you have absolutely no tailwheel time, you'll probably start in a Citabria, figuring out what a tailwheel is for before he lets you into his Stearman. "

100 hours..........

$1800.......

" He even solos you in the B-25. I wasn't afraid to solo the SNJ, but what scared me was that I knew I was close to the P-51.
..............
Then it happened. He pulled over to the side, climbed out, and said go fly it—just as if he were soloing a kid in a Cherokee. He said something about me doing fine, but I couldn't be sure because my heartbeat drowned him and the Merlin out completely. "

Amazing huh?

Now here's the sentence in the article that floored me personally...what a small world it is:

"All of your practice work is done across town at Cox Field, an old military base with delightfully wide runways and, at times, you need all the pavement you can get. "

Well when I went to pick up my airplane, we did all the practicing at.....Cox field.

Too bad I can't send a message back to me in 1971, as I was reading the article, and say that I'll be flying my own plane out of Cox field to bring her home to Massachusetts. Back then, even the idea of a 1650 mile XC flight would have been amazing to me. Still kinda does.

So to get back to the original idea of this post:

I wonder how many of us really want to own one...and how many of us really need to only solo in one?

[bdk]

It isn't legal to fly a B-25 solo.