Investing in Warbirds and other questions.
Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:23 pm
Hi All,
I was just looking at a list of warbirds for sale (including two p-51's) and I was wondering if they are a viable investment or just rich boys toys?
I understand museums and such would have income via entrance fees,grants and sponsorship but could a privately owned warbird "support" itself?
Am I correct in saying that the Warbird industry is growing in public interest ? Do the prices of these aircraft reflect this interest to a degree?
And one more thing, do WIXer's think that companies like FLUGWERK
are the future of flying warbirds, building pretty much full size replicas?
I was just looking at a list of warbirds for sale (including two p-51's) and I was wondering if they are a viable investment or just rich boys toys?
I understand museums and such would have income via entrance fees,grants and sponsorship but could a privately owned warbird "support" itself?
Am I correct in saying that the Warbird industry is growing in public interest ? Do the prices of these aircraft reflect this interest to a degree?
And one more thing, do WIXer's think that companies like FLUGWERK
are the future of flying warbirds, building pretty much full size replicas?
Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:49 pm
As for Privately owned warbirds supporting thems? I'm trying to think of the work they can do while still staying a museum piece and not a work horse.
-Oreintation Flights
-Movie Work
-Camera work
-Who wouldn't want to see a P-51D Crop Dusting
Anyone else know of other work. Now to the replica Warbirds. I think that for years and years to come you see more aircraft made. How many more will depend on the demand of the market. Now in the years ahead. (I'm thinking the 50) with fewer actual warbirds flying I think you'll see more replicas to take their place at airshows. If a manufacturee can find a way to produce aircraft with modern system and safety standards compliant systems affordable for the average joe to get his hands on then I think you'll see the market take off. Cause what guy wouldn't want a warbird of his own. But I believe this will only apply to smaller aircraft, fighters and so on. Who knows, only time will tell.
Shay
-Oreintation Flights
-Movie Work
-Camera work
-Who wouldn't want to see a P-51D Crop Dusting
Anyone else know of other work. Now to the replica Warbirds. I think that for years and years to come you see more aircraft made. How many more will depend on the demand of the market. Now in the years ahead. (I'm thinking the 50) with fewer actual warbirds flying I think you'll see more replicas to take their place at airshows. If a manufacturee can find a way to produce aircraft with modern system and safety standards compliant systems affordable for the average joe to get his hands on then I think you'll see the market take off. Cause what guy wouldn't want a warbird of his own. But I believe this will only apply to smaller aircraft, fighters and so on. Who knows, only time will tell.
Shay
Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:54 pm
i dont think anything like a p-51 would be a good investment. the prices are absurd now. and other aircraft like "marines dream" ect will most likely not ever sell.
even the prices of projects are completly stupid (sherman aircrafts corsair is 225k, its useless) if you invested a mil or more to fix it you wouldnt get your money back.
for example for 500k you can build a new p-51 even in america (200k in the east) yet an original that was built at the end of the war, never saw combat and is now a warn airframe is priced at 1.5 million, most rich investors dont like the planes they are just trying to exploit the market.
look at air racing, i cant believe some of the things they do to destroy these aircraft.
but also i dont think personly unless you had a bit of cash that you could support an aircraft, an engine o/h runs at over 100k now days ect.
even the prices of projects are completly stupid (sherman aircrafts corsair is 225k, its useless) if you invested a mil or more to fix it you wouldnt get your money back.
for example for 500k you can build a new p-51 even in america (200k in the east) yet an original that was built at the end of the war, never saw combat and is now a warn airframe is priced at 1.5 million, most rich investors dont like the planes they are just trying to exploit the market.
look at air racing, i cant believe some of the things they do to destroy these aircraft.
but also i dont think personly unless you had a bit of cash that you could support an aircraft, an engine o/h runs at over 100k now days ect.
Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:37 pm
Homer:
Are T-6s and T-28s over priced or under priced? Do you think they sell at their price?
Are T-6s and T-28s over priced or under priced? Do you think they sell at their price?
Sat Nov 13, 2004 1:12 am
HarvardIV wrote:Homer:
Are T-6s and T-28s over priced or under priced? Do you think they sell at their price?
i think a t-6/t-28 from 110k to 170k like most are is good.
they are a lot more affordable for the average person because investors havnt got to them yet like p-51s ect.
it would be a lot better to see people who actuly like these aircraft owning and flying them as opposed to people just looking to make huge profits.
Sat Nov 13, 2004 6:03 am
It depends on how long you're willing to hold on to it, and what condition it's in when you're finished with it. I honestly think that that stratospheric priced warbirds, are a good place to "hold" money, potentially non-taxable, but as an investment,,,,,with that kind of cash, you'll do a lot better, over shorter times, (like, less than ten years), in way to many other places to make it an even marginally attractive investment. For instance, a mutual fund, or a small apartment complex, or "pork bellies", doesn't have 100k engine overhauls, and don't drink a gallon of 2.90+ dollars of gas a minute, and have 10+k insurance bills, all paid out of pocket. On the other hand....Stashing a big pile of non-taxable cash for awhile, and having a real good time....well thats real good too. Thats awesome....If it's over 30 years old...at least in California....well...there's a reason there's an airport day/airshow/public day at a lot of airports around here, hell,,,at ***(yea I edited that), flying, non-flying borderline and not borderline derilect birds are pulled over to the "public area" for viewing, at least once a month.
Hi HarvardIV!
I'm not totally sure about T-6's. 170k is getting to be tops for one of those. Engine times seems to be the biggest key in pricing (I know,,, DUH, O.P.), Along with most of the usual stuff. A 900+ hour engine, well, that shouldn't top 130k, another DUH (on me anyway), because a phat engine is 30k.
I think I know a little about T-28's(yea right),,,,300+ for a zeroed out, pimp daddy plane, average 200+k. T-28 prices got kinda skewed a few years ago. Good economy, warbird'ology, picking up, even booming, One guy, for sure, tried to corner the T-28 market, Another guy, or guys,(depending on what story you've heard), Kinda tried the same thing. but it kinda popped the first guys bubble, kinda. The end result, was 5-600k T-28s. You can still see a couple for sale, now, for those kind of prices(probably the result of an "investor"). But for the most part, it's come back down, a little closer to earth.
Probably the biggest thing about a T-28's price, is the engine time(again,DUH). The TBO is supposed to be 1500hrs, The Navy says 2000hrs, reality is 1100, or less, in civilian use. I personally think the 1100 number goes up, if the plane is flown weekly. But 1100 is getting there real fast, for most planes.
Another thing...this is actually pretty cool in some ways, they came out of service recently enough for you to still see T-28's either unrestored, or with engines whose last major was performed by the Navy, but in every case, engine time is 1100 hours. The cool part is an unrestored flying plane. There are a couple three of these for sale now.
Oh yea, an engine is 50k. While I'm on it, a prop is 25k, if you can find one. One thing to do with props, is cut down an S2 prop. (Future... S2 restorers, I feel your pain,but, I probably don't regret it.)
Ahhh enough T-28 stuff.....I got a good T-6 thing, since we're both doing one.....
O.P.: I'm pretty excited about restoring this plane!
J.C.: You're going to love it! You're really going to love flying it.
O.P.: I wanna go inverted over the runway like you.
J.C.: Not for too long.
O.P.: Whadya mean? You do that.
J.C.: Those planes are modified.
O.P.: So how long then?
J.C.: When gas starts pouring over the windscreen, you should probably go upright again.
O.P.: Thats cool.
Hi HarvardIV!
I'm not totally sure about T-6's. 170k is getting to be tops for one of those. Engine times seems to be the biggest key in pricing (I know,,, DUH, O.P.), Along with most of the usual stuff. A 900+ hour engine, well, that shouldn't top 130k, another DUH (on me anyway), because a phat engine is 30k.
I think I know a little about T-28's(yea right),,,,300+ for a zeroed out, pimp daddy plane, average 200+k. T-28 prices got kinda skewed a few years ago. Good economy, warbird'ology, picking up, even booming, One guy, for sure, tried to corner the T-28 market, Another guy, or guys,(depending on what story you've heard), Kinda tried the same thing. but it kinda popped the first guys bubble, kinda. The end result, was 5-600k T-28s. You can still see a couple for sale, now, for those kind of prices(probably the result of an "investor"). But for the most part, it's come back down, a little closer to earth.
Probably the biggest thing about a T-28's price, is the engine time(again,DUH). The TBO is supposed to be 1500hrs, The Navy says 2000hrs, reality is 1100, or less, in civilian use. I personally think the 1100 number goes up, if the plane is flown weekly. But 1100 is getting there real fast, for most planes.
Another thing...this is actually pretty cool in some ways, they came out of service recently enough for you to still see T-28's either unrestored, or with engines whose last major was performed by the Navy, but in every case, engine time is 1100 hours. The cool part is an unrestored flying plane. There are a couple three of these for sale now.
Oh yea, an engine is 50k. While I'm on it, a prop is 25k, if you can find one. One thing to do with props, is cut down an S2 prop. (Future... S2 restorers, I feel your pain,but, I probably don't regret it.)
Ahhh enough T-28 stuff.....I got a good T-6 thing, since we're both doing one.....
O.P.: I'm pretty excited about restoring this plane!
J.C.: You're going to love it! You're really going to love flying it.
O.P.: I wanna go inverted over the runway like you.
J.C.: Not for too long.
O.P.: Whadya mean? You do that.
J.C.: Those planes are modified.
O.P.: So how long then?
J.C.: When gas starts pouring over the windscreen, you should probably go upright again.
O.P.: Thats cool.
Sat Nov 13, 2004 10:10 am
Hi all,
Thanks for all your answers.I was thinking along the lines of T-6's and 28's.
One thing I beg to differ with Homer is weathy investors putting money into warbirds. I see it as any money being put into warbirds as a good thing .Who's going to put a million or so into a P-51 and not give a dam? The higher the value, the more care will taken to look after their aircraft/investment.
Thanks O.P. on your info about engines.It's definately a major issue.
Maybe the bottom line is:
Interest payments (if borrowing to buy a warbird) + maintenance costs + insurance Versus the (hopefully) increase in capital value of the aircraft and the fun and enjoyment of owning and operating a warbird.What do you think people?
Thanks for all your answers.I was thinking along the lines of T-6's and 28's.
One thing I beg to differ with Homer is weathy investors putting money into warbirds. I see it as any money being put into warbirds as a good thing .Who's going to put a million or so into a P-51 and not give a dam? The higher the value, the more care will taken to look after their aircraft/investment.
Thanks O.P. on your info about engines.It's definately a major issue.
Maybe the bottom line is:
Interest payments (if borrowing to buy a warbird) + maintenance costs + insurance Versus the (hopefully) increase in capital value of the aircraft and the fun and enjoyment of owning and operating a warbird.What do you think people?
Sat Nov 13, 2004 1:52 pm
Homer wrote:
Just wonder how investors "get to them"? I would think that it's pure economics based on supply and demand. Of course there's the prestige in owning a fighter, which will boost up the price. I've also noticed that P-51s are bought and sold all the time at over $1 million.
There are less P-51s than T-6s too. That will also change the relative value based on scarcity.
i think a t-6/t-28 from 110k to 170k like most are is good.
they are a lot more affordable for the average person because investors havnt got to them yet like p-51s ect.
Just wonder how investors "get to them"? I would think that it's pure economics based on supply and demand. Of course there's the prestige in owning a fighter, which will boost up the price. I've also noticed that P-51s are bought and sold all the time at over $1 million.
There are less P-51s than T-6s too. That will also change the relative value based on scarcity.
Sat Nov 13, 2004 5:25 pm
Downunder wrote:Hi all,
Thanks for all your answers.I was thinking along the lines of T-6's and 28's.
One thing I beg to differ with Homer is weathy investors putting money into warbirds. I see it as any money being put into warbirds as a good thing .Who's going to put a million or so into a P-51 and not give a dam? The higher the value, the more care will taken to look after their aircraft/investment.
Thanks O.P. on your info about engines.It's definately a major issue.
Maybe the bottom line is:
Interest payments (if borrowing to buy a warbird) + maintenance costs + insurance Versus the (hopefully) increase in capital value of the aircraft and the fun and enjoyment of owning and operating a warbird.What do you think people?
Hi Downunder!
I love warbirds, and have no problems spending everything I have on them, but, to be honest, In almost every case, talking pure money here, they are a terrible investment.
In most cases, especially with T-28s and T-6s, the best you can do, is not lose tons of money, on the "investment". The best way to do that is, buy a significantly underpriced bird. These deals come along all of the time. For whatever reason, the previous owner needs cash fast. I know guys who bought T28s underpriced from 10s of thousands to a 100k plus. If you count up all of the expenses you mentioned, and match that to the difference between the true price of the plane, and what you paid for it, that's how long you can kinda, kinda...fly free. One brutal annual though, can get you behind, a lot faster.
Another way to get a better "return", is to restore a project using a lot of your own elbow grease.
Another way, that applies to some T-6's, is to sell rides. Some T-6s are in the standard catagory. You would have to follow all of the rules, regarding the pilot/s and the aircraft. I don't think this would be profitable on a casual basis though, you would only be defraying some costs, possibly generating more, with more aircraft inspections, bigger insurance, things like that. If you wanted to do that, the best way to do it, would be like the outfit Chuck G works for. Thats a full time business with multiple birds.
Financing an experimental/limited warbird, through regular aircraft financing sources, is probably going to be hard, if not impossible. If you look at the guys able to do this, you'll find that they are extremely well heeled, and they are probably not using these sources. I've seen a bank that does it, but I'd like to see what the buyer qualifications are, probably steep. You might be able to slip a standard catagory T-6 under the radar though.
I think the best you can do, money wise, with a T-6 or T28, is to have the greater part of the original money you spent on the plane, when you're finished with the plane. If you can do that, you're way ahead in my book. Plus you got to fly a bitchin ride for the intervening time!
On th P51's. I'm getting the feeling, from here, and elsewhere, that a one million dollar plane, is, borderline, nothing more than a ferryable project, and I think I believe that. That million dollar check, will probably be the first of many that will be wrote by the new owner.
Hope this helps, There are infinitely more knowledgeable folks here, and lurking here. If I'm bum doping you, I'm sure they'll set us both straight.
Sat Nov 13, 2004 6:32 pm
Homer,
Did you mean a P-51 could be restored for $500,000 or built from scratch for $500,000 in the U.S.
Did you mean a P-51 could be restored for $500,000 or built from scratch for $500,000 in the U.S.
Sat Nov 13, 2004 8:30 pm
HarvardIV wrote:Homer wrote:
i think a t-6/t-28 from 110k to 170k like most are is good.
they are a lot more affordable for the average person because investors havnt got to them yet like p-51s ect.
Just wonder how investors "get to them"? I would think that it's pure economics based on supply and demand. Of course there's the prestige in owning a fighter, which will boost up the price. I've also noticed that P-51s are bought and sold all the time at over $1 million.
There are less P-51s than T-6s too. That will also change the relative value based on scarcity.
ok i'll try to simplify this for you.
people started investing thier money into p-51s hoping to make a huge profits, now the prices are just ridiculous for the p-51 they are investing in other aircraft hoping to make huge profits.
ie: sea fury from 150-200k in 5 years to 700-800k understand?
another would be the new build yak 3's 9's, if you want to know the exact price of one of these airframes without the allison you have to call them but its extremly low. and the minimum ive seen these forsale for in the US is double the price and the maximum is 10X the price.
so if you want to invest in a warbird so you can get rich and rob someone of a chance to fly one in the future then go ahead, maybe one day your t-6 will be worth a million.
Sat Nov 13, 2004 8:32 pm
RMB wrote:Homer,
Did you mean a P-51 could be restored for $500,000 or built from scratch for $500,000 in the U.S.
built from scratch minus engine
Sat Nov 13, 2004 10:03 pm
Was this quoted to you by a specific shop? If so which one?
regards
Rmb
regards
Rmb
Sat Nov 13, 2004 11:24 pm
ok i'll try to simplify this for you.
people started investing thier money into p-51s hoping to make a huge profits, now the prices are just ridiculous for the p-51 they are investing in other aircraft hoping to make huge profits.
ie: sea fury from 150-200k in 5 years to 700-800k understand?
another would be the new build yak 3's 9's, if you want to know the exact price of one of these airframes without the allison you have to call them but its extremly low. and the minimum ive seen these forsale for in the US is double the price and the maximum is 10X the price.
so if you want to invest in a warbird so you can get rich and rob someone of a chance to fly one in the future then go ahead, maybe one day your t-6 will be worth a million.
Homer, not sure how buying planes builds up the price? I'd say strictly supply/demand. Maybe I was sleeping that day in economics class?
Yes all these birds seem to go up in value over time. I still don't see how buying builds up price. That's an interesting concept.
Sun Nov 14, 2004 12:05 am
Sorry couldnt stand to sit by anymore! I know many 51 owners and have for nearly 20years. I can say with out a doubt that most of the owners I know have a pure love of the mustang. This being very much like the majority of other 51 lovers in the world. Difference being they happen to have the financial horsepower to own and operate the machine. I can assure you it's not necessarily a great investment unless your able to hold long term and then who knows. I am fairly sure the stock market in the last 10 years would have beaten the investment rate. However there are not many airplanes you can buy at its respective low end scale price's (ie. airplanes that need restored) have them restored and at the end of the day come really close or be within the range of the top of the market. It is being done. Secondly the owners I've recently dealt with really really love owning them, sharing them with the vets and others. This I can assure you is genuine. The good news is that while your ENJOYING your "investment" it's not losing value. Its strictly supply and demand for the really desireable machines. I would include the SeaFury with desireability thus causing the market to rise.
There is NO way you could scratch build a D model mustang for 500k. I can also assure you of that.
Mike
There is NO way you could scratch build a D model mustang for 500k. I can also assure you of that.
Mike