Do any of you think.....

[KarenG]

Hi Guys,

I have too much time on my hands these days, and I get all kind of random thoughts...... Anyway

Do any of you think that sixty years from now the future generations will be as fascinated by today's "warbirds" as we are with the WWII planes?

I can't imagine they will be, but that is just me.

Karen

[mtpopejoy]

I hope there will still be an interest. I don't think it will be as big as it is now but we can hope.

[RyanShort1]

How many of you know of folks that like to do Civil War reenactments... Whether or not the fuel and parts will be available is the second biggest question after whether or not some tyrant will ground them.

Ryan

[mtpopejoy]

I have to agree with you Ryan.
I think by the time the next 60 years rolls around fuel and insurance costs, not to mention maintenance costs and the availability of spare parts may relegate us to going to museums to get our Warbird "fix."
Regards,
Mark

[k5083]

First of all, the number of people fascinated by warbirds today is actually quite small. When you surround yourself with such people it is easy to forget that.

There is, however, a population of warbird fanboys who raise the level of interest in warbirds somewhat above that of other vintage aircraft. That population may shrink as the technology and sex appeal of the aircraft fades further into the past, becoming more like WWI aircraft are today.

There will always be people who are interested in vintage airplanes, or just in all airplanes. At worst, interest in warbirds will continue to exist within that crowd. Likely they will continue to be at least a bit more popular than the general run of old airplanes.

Fuel and insurance have always been cited as burdens by the warbird crowd. Avgas prices over the long run have been constant or slightly declining in inflation-adjusted dollars over the decades, except for a spike in the 1970s and another one since 2003. When we quit creating artificial shortages, it is likely to return to pre-2003 levels, in real dollars. Insurance costs are driven largely by the real risks of warbird operation and a key factor is the value of warbirds themselves, so to some extent these are self-regulating.

In 60 years it may be possible, with on-demand short-run manufacturing capability being developed overseas, to undertake production of accurate replica aircraft made to order from scratch at a much lower price than now, including parts presently not replicable such as engines. It may even be possible to reengineer the engines to use newer fuels. All it really will take is a sufficient population of guys with excess wealth and a desire to expend it on this particular type of toy.

August