Burmese Spitfires back in the news...

jmkendall · **Posted:** Wed Oct 17, 2012 10:19 pm

I agree with the whole mocking thing. Enough already. NOBODY said they would just dig them up and fly them away, NO ONE.

Sheesh, all you have to do around here to bring down misery on your head is say that such and so was buried after WW2. Then all you hear are chorus's of "The Army/Navy/Marines never buried anything, anything I tell you!!!!!".

Then when you point out actual Planes, Tanks, equipment, ect that really was buried; well, THAT was the sole exception....till the next one. Then when you finally show people that stuff was buried then they say it will all be junk by now.

Well, maybe they will be. But I find it interesting that our only, known, Archaeologist hasn't chimed in.

SOME of us have spent some time digging things up. It is amazing how different the state of preservation things can be from one local to the next. And sometimes in the same local. There are so many factors, such as soil type(s), DRAINAGE, rainfall ( all at once or spread out all year), temperature, soil acidity, preservatives, the type of metal(s); and a whole bunch more; that predicting the state of preservation before you turn the first shovel is pointless.

Instead of heaping ridicule on this guy we should applaud him for spending HIS MONEY and time to track down and find these potential artifacts. And lets face it at worst we have X number of data plates and Merlin Cores that will be the basis for some 'new' builds. You would be absolutely amazed at how well preserved the internals of some engines can be if sealed properly.

Stoney · **Posted:** Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:21 pm

and if he would like to go to Okiawa, I can tell him were I buryed 5 crates of 30.06 in 1958

JDK · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 2:58 am

jmkendall wrote:

I agree with the whole mocking thing. Enough already. NOBODY said they would just dig them up and fly them away, NO ONE.

To be fair, the response is toward much of the media reporting which rather tends towards the fill the tyres and off you go...

jmkendall wrote:

Instead of heaping ridicule on this guy we should applaud him for spending HIS MONEY and time to track down and find these potential artifacts.

Well, again that's interesting. Depending on which bit of the story you want to follow, Chap A spent all his money finding the location, and invited Chap B with more (much more) money in to help. Then, according to Chap A, Mr.B took over and edged Chap A out... Of course that'd never happen or have happened before...

It's pretty certain that there are some 'crated' aircraft at a known site in Burma. They were protected and cached for possible use in the near future. The probability is that whatever's there will be in very bad shape; but it is most likely that there'll be enough to give identities and the basis for rebuilds.

Of course the numbers matter in a very different way than discussed so far, and that's the 'glut on a market'.

Spitfires (and Mustangs, and almost nothing else) have a certain cachet and thus financial value, driven by a number of social factors and availability. The quid pro quo is that there needs to be enough people with real money (and there's a story of a Spitfire 'sale') to want to buy them or fund the restoration. Adding double digit Spitfires to the world rebuild pool will be - in the long term - A Good Thing. In the short term, it'll be 'interesting' to the number of people who really, really want to spend what one will cost, given the end value, on exclusivity, will be in certain ways be lowered.

In all the fuss about people who buys Spitfires and how much they sell for, it's often overlooked that there's actually quite a few owners who find owning or restoring turns out to be just too rich for the blood.

This Burma Spitfires saga will be a long game, and one to watch. It'll be easy to watch, as it's getting top-level PR and political interest, but it isn't going to be quick, or straightforward.

Regards,

gary1954 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 6:35 am

Well PA has a very beautiful Spit, so I doubt he will require another one, but you never know...he may want a spare, the IRS knows he can afford it..

Mark V · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:53 am

JDK's is one of the most sensible posts I have read on this subject this year....

K5DH · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 7:56 am

You know, if they find anything at all remaining of these buried Spitfires, whether it's complete and restorable aircraft or just a few corroded parts, it will still be a very cool find.

Noha307 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:05 am

The AP posted this story 4 hours ago:

Quote:

Myanmar find could flood vintage Spitfire market
By AYE AYE WIN, Associated Press – 4 hours ago
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) — As many as 140 World War II Spitfire fighter planes — three to four times the number of airworthy models known to exist — are believed to be buried in near-pristine condition in Myanmar. A British-Myanmar partnership says it will begin digging them up by the end of the month.

The go-ahead for excavation came earlier this week when the Myanmar government signed an agreement with British aviation enthusiast David J. Cundall and his local partner. Cundall, a farmer and businessman, earlier this year announced he had located 20 of the planes, best known for helping the Royal Air Force win mastery of the skies during the Battle of Britain.

On Thursday, however, a retired Myanmar geology professor who has assisted in the recovery operation since 1999 said there are about 140 Spitfires buried in various places around the Southeast Asian country, which until 1948 was a British colony called Burma. He did not explain the discrepancy in estimates.

Soe Thein said the British brought crates of Spitfires to Myanmar in the closing stages of the war, but never used them when the Japanese gave up the fight in 1945. The single-seat version of the fighter plane was 9.14 meters (30 feet) long with an 11.3 meter (37 foot) wingspan.

The U.S. Army was in charge of burying the planes after British forces decided to dispose of them that way, he said, adding Cundall interviewed at least 1,000 war veterans, mostly American, to gather information about the aircraft's fate.

He said a ground search was started in 1999 using magnetometers and ground radar, but faced difficulties. Only in recent years did technology become advanced enough to be more certain of the finds, he said.

Each plane was kept in a crate about 12.2 meters (40 feet) long, 3.4 meters (11 feet) high and 2.7 meters (9 feet) wide, said Soe Thein.

The plans under a two-year contract are to recover 60 planes in the first phase: 36 planes in Mingaladon, near Yangon's current air base and international airport; 18 in Myitkyina in Kachin state in the north; and six in Meikthila in central Myanmar. Others are to be recovered in a second phase.

The Myanmar government will get one plane for display at a museum, as well as half of the remaining total. DJC, a private company headed by Cundall, will get 30 percent of the total and the Myanmar partner company, Shwe Taung Paw, 20 percent.

British Prime Minister David Cameron eased the way to an agreement when he visited Myanmar President Thein Sein in April.

Cundall has said his quest to find the planes involved 12 trips to Myanmar and cost more than 130,000 pounds ($210,000), not including the planned excavation expenses.

Spitfires in working shape are rare and popular with collectors. In 2009, a restored but airworthy Spitfire was sold by British auction house Bonhams for >1,739,500 ($2,544,130)

The excavation agreement was signed Tuesday by Civil Aviation Director-General Tin Naing Tun, Cundall on behalf of DJC, and Htoo Htoo Zaw, managing director of Shwe Taung Paw.

"It took 16 years for Mr. David Cundall to locate the planes buried in crates. We estimate that there are at least 60 Spitfires buried and they are in good condition," Htoo Htoo Zaw said Wednesday. "We want to let people see these historic fighters, and the excavation of these fighter planes will further strengthen relations between Myanmar and Britain."

The British Embassy on Wednesday described the agreement as a chance to work with Myanmar's new reformist government to restore and display the planes.

"We hope that many of them will be gracing the skies of Britain and as discussed, some will be displayed here in Burma," said an embassy spokesman, who spoke anonymously because he was not directly involved in the excavation agreement.

Myanmar from 1962 until last year was under the rule of the military, which changed the country's name from Burma in 1989. Thein Sein's reformist government has turned away from the repression of the military government and patched up relations with Western nations that had previously shunned it.

The state-owned Myanma Ahlin daily on Wednesday cited Transport Minister Nyan Tun Aung as saying the Spitfire agreement amounts to the British government's recognition of the democratic reforms.

Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

What I thought was interesting in the above story is the HUGE variation in the number of airframes that are believed to be there. Total estimated at 140, 60 +-20 to be excavated (it's not really clear if the numbers overlap). Hmmmmm...

Has anybody actually tried doing the math on how many Spits were sent to Burma?

The other curious note is who gets how many aircraft. According to the above story, the Burma government get 1 for a museum + 50% of what's left, 20% goes to a private Burmese company and only a measly 30% goes to Mr. Cundall. I don't know about you, but I don't trust Burma to take care of the 70% they're getting.

k5083 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:37 am

Okay, in deference to jmkendall:

[/mock]

It isn't true, of course, that "at least" there will be data plates and Merlin cores. "At least" there will be absolutely nothing. At next-to-least, there will be some barely identifiable corroded parts, and sadly, if I had to put my chips on any one outcome on this roulette wheel, that would be the one. Then in decreasing orders of probability we have various levels of something that could serve as a "basis" (whatever that means) for 20, or is it 60, or is it 140 projects.

I'm as hopeful as anyone, but to paraphrase Basil Fawlty, it's not despair that kills you, it's hope. Even so, the rest of this post assumes that something generally recognizable as Spitfires comes out of the holes.

As far as the disposition of airframes, I doubt we would have to worry about the Myanmar govt "taking care" of its airframes for very long. They surely have no interest in possessing that many Spitfires for any longer than it takes to sell them; this is economic speculation on their part. If the machines really are more or less intact, they might reserve a handful of airframes to trade for favors with other govts, but I would think the rest would go quickly to western collectors, possibly in lots of several airframes to become composite restorations. If that money went into Myanmartian -- uh, Myanmarish -- aw, forget it, Burmese -- schools or health care, it would be the best thing about this whole business.

Of course, not all airframes will be in equal condition so I foresee disputes over WHICH half the govt gets, and similarly as between the other parties.

A Spitfire glut is certainly a delightful fantasy. In this era of new-build machines, I have trouble thinking of what could come out of the holes that would open any of the current chokepoints in Spitfire reproduction. It's not my sense that Spitfire data plates/identities are in short supply. And only at the most optimistic end of the spectrum would anything come out of the holes that would save appreciable time/money over the current data-plate restorations. At the moment, and this is a Great Thing About Living Today, a Spitfire can be basically willed into existence starting with nothing but a checkbook. Not sure the checkbook will be able to be much smaller if a few of the fabricated parts can be replaced by retrieved, cleaned, repaired, inspected, etc. original parts.

August

Adam Kline · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:00 am

Based on the economic calamity that the Myanmar government has done for it's own economy, I would think that Myanmar getting more Spitfires is a good thing. Not for the people of Myanmar, but for the people purchasing them at (what I predict) less then market prices.

bdk · **Joined:** Sun May 02, 2004 1:16 am **Posts:** 11324

Mark V wrote:

JDK's is one of the most sensible posts I have read on this subject this year....

Yes, I'm going to exercise my write-in privileges and vote JDK for president next month! I think he has "most" of the qualifications which is good enough for me.

Once all those Spitfires are dug up, I'm going to buy the data plate for the one that shot down Admiral Yamamoto. I hear it's the most famous of the bunch.

The Inspector · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:02 am

bdk wrote:

Mark V wrote:

JDK's is one of the most sensible posts I have read on this subject this year....

Yes, I'm going to exercise my write-in privileges and vote JDK for president next month! I think he has "most" of the qualifications which is good enough for me.

Once all those Spitfires are dug up, I'm going to buy the data plate for the one that shot down Admiral Yamamoto. I hear it's the most famous of the bunch.

jmkendall · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:03 am

I stand by my statement of "at least".

I used it in the most probable sense. You have to use a bit of common sense and probability when you use that term.

For instance what most people call a "solid surface" really isn't. It is composed of atoms with lots of room, relatively, between them. It is theoretically possible to for you to jump out of bed and instead of landing on the floor, you would sink through the floor. So you could say "The least you can do jumping out of bed is to sink through the floor". Again in the real world this will never happen and it would be silly to make such a statement, even if true IN AN ABSOLUTE sense.

As for the Spitfires to say that "at the least there will be nothing" is just plain absurd. Even if all the Aluminum and stainless steel and copper had somehow all decayed, there would be "at least' trace amounts in the soil.Do you know how long it would take copper to decay to nothing in even the most favored conditions? The glass? Stainless steel, and Aluminum? There would be "at least" glass. Glass has a very low decay rate. There is naturally occurring glass that is billions of years old. To see significant decay of the instrument glass would take a bit over 1 Million years. I'm not sure, but I don't think those Aircraft have been in the ground that long. Also, in practical terms,the remains of the engines (protected in part by the oil inside) should be significant. To say that those aircraft decayed so badly that "at (the) least" there is nothing is an incredibly ignorant statement.

But hey what do I know about Materials Science, I only studied Engineering, not Law.

jmkendall · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:04 am

Hey, BDK, you have to be a citizen to be President...just sayin :drink3:

marine air · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:18 am

140 in boxes, in perfect shape certainlyu wouldn't be a glut of any sort. THey valuable first as a source of spare parts for those arircraft already restored and flying. 2) There is an interet in museums for static -only airpframes for museums and military collectors. 3) If restorable, they are valuable to exchange to museums that have better, nnow parked examples. Like the MK 18 at Palm Springs Air Museum and the CLiff Robertson example.
4) interest in acquiring a basket caase for investment purposes. I would pay, fair value for a Spitfire project and sit on it before I would invest in Facebook stock, Tesla, or even gold and silver, this late in the market.
5) There might be a few buyers purchasing them and sending them directly to restoration shops. There's a very finite amount of people that have that kind of idle cash laying around. The airframes won't be airworthy, IMO, because of dissimilar metal corrosion on the magnesium rivets and elsewhere.
The best deal may have been the dozen or so they sold a few years ago for $250k each.

k5083 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:35 am

jmkendall wrote:

I used it in the most probable sense. You have to use a bit of common sense and probability when you use that term.

I did too.

Quote:

As for the Spitfires to say that "at the least there will be nothing" is just plain absurd.

I hope you are right and I am wrong. Because it sucks being right all the time.

Quote:

To say that those aircraft decayed so badly that "at (the) least" there is nothing is an incredibly ignorant statement.

But hey what do I know about Materials Science, I only studied Engineering, not Law.

That wasn't what I was saying. I did study law, so I'm attentive to evidence. Right now there is no direct evidence that there is a single Spitfire underground in Myanmar, in any condition. If there are any and if they are found, I agree with you that it is unreasonable to expect absolutely nothing to be left of them. OTOH, absolutely nothing useful is well within the realm of possibiity.

August

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