Warbird Information Exchange

Interesting thread, and perhaps high time for this one on the WIX.

The L-19, or any of these "markets" are casualties of the steady decline in pilots nationwide, and the current fact that very few people will choose to fly airplanes in the future. I have been a professional pilot for 16 years, and would have never expected to see what we are seeing today in the regional airline world as far as pilot hiring. There is nobody out there. Hardly anyone is choosing this as a career, and that is the bedrock of General Aviation participation. Airshows and fly ins thirty plus years ago were full of restored Staggerwings and Howards, Navions and even L-19's. Today there arent really any of those anymore. The fly-ins are gone, and the ones that remain have diminished to the point that few spectators come out anymore either. Why is this?

Flying, or a life in aviation is a rare choice because it takes a lot of work and effort to become a pilot. Further, not everyone that tries succeeds for a variety of reasons. Those that do, should they choose to keep moving "up the ladder" must continue to learn and focus on the specifics of the next type of aircraft or rating, and continue to pass. For all there will be a ceiling, where that is is tough to discern sometimes, but it happens. Today what is notable is few try. It has never been easier to become a pilot. Never. This is the best time that I have ever seen. Still nobody is really showing up.

For the new hires at the airline here, virtually none have tailwheel endorsements, seaplane ratings or a desire to own and fly their own plane beyond idle dreaming. Something like an L-19 is a complete abstraction. They don't know what it is, why it was built and what the reason for the fact that it only has one other seat. Working on airplanes and searching for parts is a huge part of the fun of warbirds, but its not an easy thing, and those that want to do it are rare. Those who have a place to do it are rarer still.

While few here would want a new Cirrus SR-22, how many people want to buy one? A few. What do they cost? Perhaps $600,000 with all the bells shined brand new. And then when they have their new plane and look for a hangar in a metropolitan area they are told that hangars are a three year wait or more and they have to use a tie down or go do an airport 55 minutes away. How many folks buy a new Ferrari convertible and then park it on the street because they have no garage? Another point is thus that General Aviation has always restricted supply of hangars and other infrastructure, in order to avoid a glut or collapse in prices on hangars and facilities. Mission accomplished. But its hard to get excited about an L-19 when you realize you have to go on a tie down or have to buy or sublease a hangar at some crazy high rate. Hangar in Southern California $1000 a month. Hangar in San Marco Texas, not much different right now. Rents are going up because there aren't as many airplanes! They need to hit their targets for rent! So interestingly my hangar rent went from 400 to 1000 dollars in one year. Amazing.

The P-51 is for the short term immune from this, and perhaps for the long term. Many buyers aren't concerned with professional pilot jobs, and enjoy a lot of toys. But the bedrock of Warbird aviation is the yeoman types. Stearmans, T-6 and L-19's. Waco's and Staggerwings and the antiques are also to some another way in. There are few buyers. And that is for whole airplanes. Projects? Who would do that? I realize that my Stearman project will cost a large amount to restore, but if I finish in 2020, what would it be worth? There wont be anyone rated to fly it perhaps by that point that would want to even allow me to break even in cost. A sobering discovery.

Lets look at the WIX lastly. How many of us are here that love airplanes? How many of us fly airplanes. How many of us OWN airplanes. Probably a high percentage. But its still a percentage. Why doesn't everyone at airshows, who spends thousands on cameras or RC models or starts at IPMS model contests transition to real planes? What was different about the few that did?

I have a good job, and I am in the process of getting the best one for me. The job search is hard, but finding the company that you want to pair with is a hard fight. I am hoping my job search is over and I have that "Last Job" that I can take to retirement. I simply love the airlines for the security some of them can give you, and you get to fly all day (and some nights) to boot. But I spend a lot of time away. And my money goes into airplanes. I won't have a big house because of it. I have chosen three airplanes to go through life with so far, and that financial decision is a big one. It means I have made choices about things I won't have. I would love an L-19. But there are a lot of other beautiful airplanes out there too. I can only "afford" (not the correct word) three (assuming a Spitfire project does not fall into my lap). I'm doing great. But I am a rarity in my airliner. Few I fly with have the passion.

Airplane values will decrease and the legions of airplanes that are leaving us now will not be replaced. Its sad L-129 values are dropping, but sadder still that old 150's 152's and 172's are being parted or scrapped for lack of interest in simple repairs. The bedrock of general aviation is disappearing. Want to fix this? Then those of you that are out there, on the couch or in a chair who have an interest need to devote your time and effort into an investment. Invest in yourself. Save that Cessna 150 and restore it to factory colors. Learn to fly it. Travel in in and learn about the courage and strength you never knew about that was inside you all along. Find that 182. Move up into a Bonanza. Try out a Champ and then a Citabria. Then go find and save the plane that you want. And along the way encourage and help others do the same...

I can't speak for the L 19 but I have owned my L 4 since 2010. It was fully restored and had just received judges choice at Oshkosh. I actually bought it off eBay for 29k. The aircraft burns about 4 gph annuals cost under 700 a year and insurance costs under 700 a year. Since I bought it I have logged just over 400 hours in it. Without a doubt it's the most fun I have ever had flying.
So while probably the lowest rung on the warbird ladder it is still a warbird. It attracts attention and it is always an honor to explain to people what it is and what it did in WW 2. They are also light sport and I am not aware of any other warbird that is. I guess the point I am trying to make is their are some L Birds out there you can get into for a reasonable amount and actually be able to afford to go out and fly the thing. Well if you call 65 mph and a 130 mile range flying. I do and have no regrets.
That said I still dream of owning that P 51 one day!

The Stearmans market is down also. A friend has two, including one he just just finished. And was saying he couldn't sell it for what he had in it ( though that not his goal, he just doesn't need two of them).

....I have owned my L 4 since 2010....
So while probably the lowest rung on the warbird ladder it is still a warbird.

No, that would be an L-2 or 3. Their values have always been behind the Piper.

Another poster mentioned that he thought interest in the big 30-40s classics like Staggerwings and Howard's were falling.
I think some of those will always have a market...younger guys are buying and flying them. One issue is pilot experience...it takes a seasoned hand (and feet!) to control a Staggerwing on the ground. A friend sold his to a guy who just couldn't fly it properly...and who promptly sold it to someone who could.
Again, there are parallels to the old car hobby. For years people were saying that brass (pre-1920) cars would fall in value when the old timers who say them as kids died off.
It hasn't happened. Young collectors appreciate their worth and place in history.

when I was a 180 seller was replaced by a smile when I became a 195 buyer (it is a buyer's market for sure!).

I think it really depends on what it is and whats hot in the market at the time. I researched L-4's last year for about 6 months before I purchased one. There are a lot of Cubs out there painted OD green and played off as L-4s but in reality there are only around 120 actual L-4's left in the US. Beyond those 120, 30 more or so are just paperwork from total losses decades ago.
I stepped up and paid good money for my L-4J because there are so few out there and real ones don't come up for sale that often. Cub prices on the open market don't ever seem to go down.
If anyone wants an excel spread sheet of L-4's are out there with N number, serial, owner, address, engine & when was last air worthy PM me.

A Grade 8/9 would be: ( There are maybe six of these)
Original data plates, some missing logs and original paper but verified thru a FAA CD. An original military O-170 engine with depot stamps and or data plate. A good frame tag that matches back to the factory record and ties back to the Piper serial #. A bonus would be AAF accident reports with visible damage documented. Wood spars with most original components reused.