Warbird Information Exchange

I'm working on a P-51 market analysis ownership, sales, etc & would like some opinions.

A friend mentioned to me yesterday that out of all of the mustangs that flew to Oshkosh this year, he hypothesized maybe two were flown in by their actual owners.


With the baby boomer generation getting older and mustang values being what they are, do you think were headed toward lower prices and more available on the market in the future ?

I think there is still a future where there are a lot of younger wealthy people who are interested in owning and operating warbirds. Heck, just look at the quote from a dude here on WIX back several years ago that is down in my sig line, hehe

Every handful of years it seems a new someone with a whole bunch of money takes a liking to warbirds, buys one, then buys several when they enjoy that one. They keep them for a few or a dozen years, then lose money or interest (or both) sell them and move on.

Short of a massive financial catastrophe, I don't see that cycle changing. Thus, I don't see plummeting Mustang values on the horizon.

Interestingly, the lower tier warbird values (trainers, especially) have been relatively flat the last 6-9 years or so, even in the face of a recovering economy and lower fuel prices.

We are definitely in an era, though, where there are lots of owners who tap into available experienced (and insurable) pilots with free time who can ensure that the airplanes make appearances (and collect appearance fees for the airplane) during the airshow season.

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It's more likely that the cost of mx/parts/fuel/insurance etc only keeps rising out of the realm of reality causing the flying examples to become static examples.

While there are some younger folks into warbirds, I've noticed the same trend at airshows and warbird gatherings that I have seen at vintage car shows and auctions. I am about 30 years younger then 95% of the people there. The interest is dying off at the same time that exclusivity has risen to an all time high. About 1% of new pilots seem to build time in tailwheel aircraft let alone something radial. It's just not around. So interest is low, experience is lower and it's too much money to buy anything that would ever prepare you for warbirding. Yes there are incredible young people with experience and drive but they are the outliers. Truly. I fly professionally at a 121 carrier and in the past decade of doing so only met a handful of pilots who even care about aviation at all. They may have had the passion in the beginning but haven't read about, watched a YouTube video or god forbid touched a GA aircraft on a day off in countless years. That's why myself and a handful of passionate 121 guys got out there and saved our C-53. We want to be involved and we are trying to get people back into the passionate side of it. And we want to say enough with the barriers to entry.


Personally I think prices are going to come down dramatically for vintage cars and planes let alone warbirds. Operating costs are only going to go up and while a Ferrari is art you can put in a garage and park, not so easy to do that with a P-51, T-6 or old Mopar. If there is any gas left I think the getting is going to be good in 20 years.

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Cessna 195

They ain't making "new" P-51 Mustangs anymore!
I've seen their values increase tremendously over time.
Currently several are for sale ranging from $1.6 - $4.5 million, but about $2.5 is about right.
Overall, it is not the cost of the plane, it is the cost of ownership that is a major factor.
I believe there still is plenty of public interest, just look at the big crowds at Air Shows and plenty of people love them.
The P-51 is probably the best loved aircraft of all time.

Great thread, this info really helps. I now spend less time on Internet forums so I can spend more time getting rich so I can buy warbirds.

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Zero Surprise!!...

the warbird market is dead...many projects are being scrapped instead of restored now

Interesting and timely question. Have you noticed that there are No T-6s for sale? Well, there is one, but it is nearly half a million. Courtesy had several but they all sold. This is what it takes for a jump in prices. That and a good economy. There are several Mustangs for sale, but they all have issues. My fear has been that "collectors" who don't fly will keep buying up airplanes and we don't get to see them fly anymore, because they are being collected, rather than enjoyed for what they are. So it was good to see a number of them flying this weekend in Tucson, working up for airshow season. Even if half of them are owned by the same guy, at least they are getting exercised.

Also exciting to see Art Teeters has five TF's on the boil, for customers. So there appears to be a lot of interest.

P.S. Nobody is scrapping Mustang projects and yes, they are making new ones.

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Rob C

Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. “

– Michael Crichton

1) They are making "new" P-51 Mustangs and have been for quite some time. It's called a "dataplate restoration". I believe that every single part on a Mustang that is not an engine is duplicatable. They are numerous, numerous examples of these "dataplate restorations" over the years. If you want to go even further, exact copy replica P-51 Mustangs have been built as well - i.e. the Beck P-51A. There are enough parts, blueprints and engineering information to keep building "new" P-51's into perpetuity. As any particular Mustang is involved in a crash, its parts are incorporated into other rebuilds, along with new parts. Supply isn't a problem whatsoever for Mustangs. As long as there is demand, the prices will be high. I've been following warbird prices since the late 70's, and they've consistently gone up over time. Sure, there are peaks and valleys, during times of recession, etc., but the overall price will continue to steadily go up. I don't believe they will ever go in a steady downward trajectory unless something drastic happens like 100LL is banned with no replacement, or the FAA passes some draconian rule outlawing so-called "old planes", or something similar.

2) Is the P-51 the best loved aircraft of all time? That is debatable. Some say it is the DC-3, some say the Cub, etc.

The only projects I've been aware of that are being scrapped are "common" warbirds such as HU-16's, T-28's, T-6's, etc - planes that are not worth that much to begin with because there are so many around.

I don't believe any rare, or high value warbirds have been scrapped recently, not discounting ones abandoned in the Pacific which are scrapped on a somewhat regular basis.

Are there some high profile warbird projects that have been scrapped recently that are "under the radar"?

I follow the old/classic/collector car market.
One thing I've learned is not to believe "conventional wisdom" that predicts the end of a market or drop in desirability of something because of age.

The Brass-era (circa WWI) car market is very healthy despite the fact that the old guys who wanted one because their grandfathers had them or because they saved from from a junkyard in the 40s or 50s are no longer with us. It wasn't too long ago that the conventional wisdom said that boomers wanted Ferraris and GTOs (better yet, a Ferrari GTO) and the really old stuff would drop in value. Well, astute collectors, regardless of age, admire quality, so prices have remained strong and in many cases have been accelerating.
Same with the big classics of the 30s. Duesenbergs will always have a market as will other great, if lesser known, marques. People have also been predicting that 50s cars will lose value as the guys who lusted after a (then) new 57 Chevy as a kid leave the market. Well, the 55-57 Chevy market may be down a bit, but quality convertibles still bring big bucks despite there being thousands out there. Even run of the mill cars of the 50s-60s bring respectable money.

Of course some less desirable body styles will go begging for the same reason why we see (for example) Twin Beechs get scrapped, their value doesn't warrant an expensive restoration (though in aviation high operating costs obviously play a larger role than they do in cars).
In short, I think the days of cheap Mustangs aren't coming back (at least until the EPA bans AVGAS).

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Remember the vets, the wonderful planes they flew and their sacrifices for a future many of them did not live to see.
Note political free signature.
I figure if you wanted my opinion on items unrelated to this forum, you'd ask for it.

Quite frankly, I think the conditions in the U.S. both economically and socially don't favor conspicuos consumption by the masses. Corporations have closed the loopholes in high payrolls to increase earnings for their stockholders. What you can buy with your paycheck, "buying power" has been decreasing for the past 22 years. Taxes and other factors like insurance and the legal system have broken the backs of most "up and coming" future business owners and millionaires. The dynamics have changed.
In my case, 12 years ago I had a slush fund building to buy a warbird. I had about $300K and thought what the heck, maybe I can double it and get a Wildcat." (The cost of an FM-2 back then.) Then the stock market tanked and I lost 60% of that slush fund. It has been partially built back. I used to work 6 to 6 1/2 days a week. It was fun building wealth. Now it's impossible to stay that busy and don't know anyone that is making in real dollars, what they were 10 or 20 years ago.
My thoughts are on hanging on to what I have and having a retirement. Most corporations don't offer a quality retirement plan anymore.

When I toured Cal pacific Airmotive last year, they said they are so booked they wouldn't even give me a quote on my project. Something like a 5 year wait... Not bad for a million dollar plus toy...



The only projects that I have been aware of that have been scrapped are NMUSAF items or ones that the owners want extreme prices for projects that are mainly patterns. Are there others you know of that you could share with the group?

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Always looking for P-51D parts.

i have had to scrap some big chunks of airacobras that could have been the basis for projects, i cannot justify the price of storage in the hangars when they are not worth anything

Did you consider donating those pieces to any Air Museums? I know lots of museums would take airplane pieces for displays unless they were molten, melted pieces of unrecognizable metal.

Did you contact museums that have airacobras and the various groups/organizations around that are restoring them? Surely, at least one of them would have been interested.

Also, did you consider putting the parts up for sale on Ebay? There are nearly always buyers for anything W.W.II related. I've seen unrecognizable hunks of metal sell for many hundreds of dollars there.

Lastly, did you announce your intention to sell those pieces both on here and the WIX facebook page? Both of those sites get out to the majority of the warbird community. Unless what you had was junk, there would have been some interest. Were you asking a realistic price?