P-51 Market analysis

[menards]

i have had to scrap some big chunks of airacobras that could have been the basis for projects, i cannot justify the price of storage in the hangars when they are not worth anything

I saw a rotted out set of longerons for a P-51 listed on Ebay recently for a reserve price set way above scrap value. Im calling BS here. Why dont you post some pics of the bits...

[fiftycal]

they might be listed for that but who is going to buy them? no im not posting photos, call all the bs you want doesnt matter a do you kiss your mother with that mouth? to me

[menards]

they might be listed for that but who is going to buy them?

Collectors will buy anything that has some form of provenance, they always have. The only thing to agree on is price.

[airnutz]

And when there is questionable market value there's the Walt Soplata's...just not enough of those guys scattered strategically 'round the country tho...

[OD/NG]

i have had to scrap some big chunks of airacobras that could have been the basis for projects, i cannot justify the price of storage in the hangars when they are not worth anything

I saw a rotted out set of longerons for a P-51 listed on Ebay recently for a reserve price set way above scrap value. Im calling BS here. Why dont you post some pics of the bits...

I'm tending to agree with you, menards. He didn't answer any of my previous questions on attempts to sell the items AND he won't post pictures. I'm thinking there is a little "truth-stretching" going on here.

It's either that, or his definition of "big chunks that could have been the basis for projects" is composed of bits and pieces that are unrecognizable as coming from an aircraft.

[RobC]

I am sure Fiftycal is capable of defending himself, but you guys owe him an apology. Not only are you rude, but you are wrong. He has listed P-39 projects here, on Barnstormers, and on e-Bay. The original query was Mustangs, and of course, that is the key difference. There is a supply chain for parts and heavy demand for Mustangs. P-39s are awesome airplanes, but the mountain to climb is huge. With all the big money collectors, a complete build has only been finished one time.

I have to correct a comment I made earlier. The five TF-51s are being built in two separate shops by Teeters, father and son.

[Kyleb]

I am sure Fiftycal is capable of defending himself, but you guys owe him an apology. Not only are you rude, but you are wrong. He has listed P-39 projects here, on Barnstormers, and on e-Bay. .

+1

[menards]

I am sure Fiftycal is capable of defending himself, but you guys owe him an apology. Not only are you rude, but you are wrong. He has listed P-39 projects here, on Barnstormers, and on e-Bay. The original query was Mustangs, and of course, that is the key difference. There is a supply chain for parts and heavy demand for Mustangs. P-39s are awesome airplanes, but the mountain to climb is huge. With all the big money collectors, a complete build has only been finished one time.

I have to correct a comment I made earlier. The five TF-51s are being built in two separate shops by Teeters, father and son.

So theres been some Airacobra bits floating around on the net...this one comes to mind...

http://ww2live.com/en/content/world-war ... oject-just

Courtesy advertised a project... there is the one up in Buffalo that came out of Russia... So not denying they are out there. Lets now keep in mind, the original comment was that P-39 bits were scrapped (past tense) because cost of storage was too high.....On a message board about the PRESERVATION of historic aircraft...digest that. Nothing wrong with calling out the troll. No one was rude and no one has any cause to be offended..

[OD/NG]

I am sure Fiftycal is capable of defending himself, but you guys owe him an apology. Not only are you rude, but you are wrong. He has listed P-39 projects here, on Barnstormers, and on e-Bay. The original query was Mustangs, and of course, that is the key difference. There is a supply chain for parts and heavy demand for Mustangs. P-39s are awesome airplanes, but the mountain to climb is huge. With all the big money collectors, a complete build has only been finished one time.

I have to correct a comment I made earlier. The five TF-51s are being built in two separate shops by Teeters, father and son.

Okay, that's good to know. Then why didn't he simply say that? He ignored the 4 questions I asked earlier. When somebody ignores your questions, it does not establish credibility. He makes a controversial statement and then doesn't back it up. What else am I supposed to think of that action?

No, I'm not apologizing, as there is nothing to apologize about. If he did all of those things, then that's great, I will stand corrected.

BTW, the "complete build" of P-39's has been finished more than once by "big money collectors".

[PinecastleAAF]

Free storage at my place for P-39 scrap, P-51 scrap too. Might consider others.

[fiftycal]

that cobras was sold but i listed another with a good history, confirmed kill, substantially complete, with new parts as well and there are many many tire kickers out there but no buyers, even listed at HALF the cost of recovery.

i have enough to finish my aircraft and even offer support, parts etc as things are built but it seems no market exists, thats why a lot of stuff gets scrapped. storage is expensive, recoveries are not worth it w/o a market.

[Tim Savage]

I don't think there is any lack of demand for the more popular types that are priced right. The more difficult projects (and I would put the P-39 recoveries in that bucket) are a much harder sell. First, they aren't that popular unless you are really into history which limits their desire and second, the cost of restoration of something like that in a commercial shop is astronomical. Remember that most warbird owners have an appreciation for history, but it isn't entirely why they are buying them. Thus why the Mustang and the Corsair have always remained the most popular...because they are the most recognizable and sexiest.

The Mustangs that are priced right and recently restored seemed to be selling just fine. A lot of them are changing hands without ever hitting the open market it seems.

The overpriced stuff is just going to sit, as it always has. There have been peaks in the market when a couple of players have been rapidly buying airplanes and driving the price up. 2005-6 was a good example of this when you had one collector paying big dollars for airplanes he wanted and you had another player that was buying airplanes and flipping them, driving the price up along the way. Things seemed to have settled down from there.

The T-6 market also seems strong with what appears to be a lack of inventory.

It is important to recognize that there is an ebb and flow of popularity in the market. In the early to mid 90s guys were literally pouring close to a million into T-28 restorations. They were the 'in' thing. Now you see T-28 prices rather depressed. The same thing has happened with T-34s and L-39s over the years from my observation. To me it is all cyclical.

I don't see any lack of interest from younger guys either...it just takes them a while to accumulate the needed bucks to do it. I used to be one of the young guys..not so much anymore

[Tim Savage]

I don't think there is any lack of demand for the more popular types that are priced right. The more difficult projects (and I would put the P-39 recoveries in that bucket) are a much harder sell. First, they aren't that popular unless you are really into history which limits their desire and second, the cost of restoration of something like that in a commercial shop is astronomical. Remember that most warbird owners have an appreciation for history, but it isn't entirely why they are buying them. Thus why the Mustang and the Corsair have always remained the most popular...because they are the most recognizable and sexiest.

The Mustangs that are priced right and recently restored seemed to be selling just fine. A lot of them are changing hands without ever hitting the open market it seems.

The overpriced stuff is just going to sit, as it always has. There have been peaks in the market when a couple of players have been rapidly buying airplanes and driving the price up. 2005-6 was a good example of this when you had one collector paying big dollars for airplanes he wanted and you had another player that was buying airplanes and flipping them, driving the price up along the way. Things seemed to have settled down from there.

The T-6 market also seems strong with what appears to be a lack of inventory.

It is important to recognize that there is an ebb and flow of popularity in the market. In the early to mid 90s guys were literally pouring close to a million into T-28 restorations. They were the 'in' thing. Now you see T-28 prices rather depressed. The same thing has happened with T-34s and L-39s over the years from my observation. To me it is all cyclical.

I don't see any lack of interest from younger guys either...it just takes them a while to accumulate the needed bucks to do it. I used to be one of the young guys..not so much anymore

[fiftycal]

ive seen P-51s listed for a long time around the 1.5 mark but they are going nowhere..also most of them are older restos where nothing like spars etc were replaced, i wouldn't trust them, cobras under 10k feet will run rings around a P-51 in speed and maneuverability though even with 500hp less, anyway cobras are my thing, i will continue to build my planes and scrap left overs

[menards]

that cobras was sold but i listed another with a good history, confirmed kill, substantially complete, with new parts as well and there are many many tire kickers out there but no buyers, even listed at HALF the cost of recovery.

i have enough to finish my aircraft and even offer support, parts etc as things are built but it seems no market exists, thats why a lot of stuff gets scrapped. storage is expensive, recoveries are not worth it w/o a market.

While some people have made $ on warbirds..for the most part is not a profiteering enterprise. if you have the mindset that "I have $X in the recovery of these bits...that means they are worth $X" then its on you. People spend $ recovering these parts and wrecks for the purpose of preservation, not for profit. Remember in the mid 90's when north of $3 million was spent on the recovery and restoration of glacier girl at a time when a flyable p-38 could be had for less than a million? same difference...