National Warplane Museum to stop flying Movie Memphis Belle

[Chris Brame]

Don't fret about the B-17 situation, though. There are at least, what, 5 to 7 B-17's undergoing restoration right now to flying condition? So, despite this temporary setback in the numbers B-17's flying on "active status", I would say the future is actually bright for the B-17 type specifically, imo.

But with the insurance situation, will they be completed as statics instead or, to cut losses, canceled entirely?

Wonder if the Israeli Air Force will start putting out feelers again to get a flyer; they've wanted one for a LONG time.

[OD/NG]

Don't fret about the B-17 situation, though. There are at least, what, 5 to 7 B-17's undergoing restoration right now to flying condition? So, despite this temporary setback in the numbers B-17's flying on "active status", I would say the future is actually bright for the B-17 type specifically, imo.

But with the insurance situation, will they be completed as statics instead or, to cut losses, canceled entirely?

Wonder if the Israeli Air Force will start putting out feelers again to get a flyer; they've wanted one for a LONG time.

I don't know - that's the 20 million dollar question. I think it is way too early to see what the long term effects are from the crash and insurance rates. In my opinion, three things will drive the viability of future warbird restorations - including the B-17:

1) What, if anything, will change from a regulatory perspective from the FAA? If the standards get too difficult or restrictive, that could significantly reduce the profit margins on selling rides in warbirds. If the profit margin gets too small or is not worth the effort, many groups will give up and move on to other more successful business models.

2) What will be the long term effects of the increase in insurance premiums and reduction in coverage as a result of recent events? Again, if it is deemed "too high risk" by the leadership and/or BOD of major museums/organizations, they will "cut their losses", give up and move on. We've already seen that with 2 B-17 operators in the last week.

3) Will the net effect of the above two translate into much more expensive support for warbirds? For example, will engine overhauls get significantly more expensive? Will the parts supply follow suit? As an example of this, the price for a newly overhauled Merlin for the Mustang has gone up about 100K in the last 5 to 7 years. If the support system gets to be too expensive and too difficult, this also could have a very adverse effect on the numbers of warbirds continuing to fly, as well as them giving passenger rides to support their operations.

Lots of questions that remain to be seen and I don't know how all of this will end up. I think in another year or two, after everything has settled a bit, we will see what the future of warbird operations entails in the current climate.

For whatever it's worth, there are MANY, MANY people who are fighting for and are advocates for warbird operations behind the scenes. A lot of very tough battles are being fought, as we speak, to preserve all of the rights we now have. Some of these people are in very important high positions that can influence policy and decision-makers. For all of our sake, let's hope they are successful in their battles. Time will tell.

[bomberfan]

Wonder if the Israeli Air Force will start putting out feelers again to get a flyer; they've wanted one for a LONG time.

I believe they've acquired one. There were announcements made, and then shortly after, everybody started saying it was a secret, so I'd rather not say who or which one. If someone else does fine, I just don't want to step on any toes.

Last edited by bomberfan on Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[OD/NG]

edited, reference quote corrected.

Last edited by OD/NG on Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[bomberfan]

Oops!! You're right, I shortened it incorrectly!

[OD/NG]

Oops!! You're right, I shortened it incorrectly!

No problem.

[TAdan]

Trying to look at the bright side, maybe this will allow them to concentrate on the B-23.

I certainly hope the MMB will find a home with another operator.

[Jerry O'Neill]

Two things:
1: I don't see the word "Grounding" except in discussions about the decisions made. Lone Star appears to have stopped their ride program and the NWM is ending a lease on MMB. It doesn't mean they are grounded.

2: Besides the lawyers and individuals seeking compensation after a crash, I do blame the insurance companies quite a bit. They are in the gambling business. They make money on the premiums we pay and hope that they don't have to pay out more than they make. When a big loss happens, they want to make that up. And these days, add the word "Boeing" to the accident and it freaks them out.

My two cents.
Jerry

[ErrolC]

This week's Airplane Geeks podcast interviews Tom Haines from AOPA, discussing their reporting on increases in aircraft insurance premiums (focus on GA aircraft)

http://www.airplanegeeks.com/2020/01/29 ... insurance/

Why insurance rates are increasing 10 to 100 percent

[warbirdfinder]

The B-17 going to the Israeli's is a static display aircraft, a non-flyer.

[Iclo]

Cost of operating these beasts are increasing, and the insurances are not the only factor.

Sally B is also in urgent need of cash for engines overhaul.

Not to be provocant, but when the French's B17 was grounded for various reasons, one of them was the insurance cost increase in Europe, there were lots of US's peoples saying, (sometimes with harsh words for the team who kept her flying for 30 years...) that this plane must be bring back to the States to be kept flying.