Oshkosh 2020 Planning Goes Forward

[Dan K]

https://www.eaa.org/airventure/eaa-airv ... nture-2020

[hurricane_yank]

As it should - we need to move forward.

[Ken]

Well stated by EAA. Planning goes forward with the next decision point occurring in May. If the illness and mortality models prove at all accurate, it will be a challenging decision in many facets.

Ken

[marine air]

I predict it will be canceled this year.

[Jeremy S]

I predict it will be canceled this year.

Sadly, I think you are right. At this point all of my annual events up through May have been cancelled. I actually just realized that I have yet to even put in my PTO request for Oshkosh, I normally do that in January or February.

Last edited by Jeremy S on Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[bdk]

I predict it will be canceled this year.

What method do you use to make these predictions? Ouija Board? Crystal Ball? Are you channeling Paul Poberezny?

[DH82EH]

It is a prediction.
Given the current state of things, it is also one that I agree with.
The PEAK of Corona virus in the United States is likely a month or more away. I realize some say 2 weeks, but I don't agree. That is just the peak.
There will be no semblance, of what is to be the new normal, until a vaccine or a cure is available.
Just like 911, there will be a pre-Corona virus normal and a post Corona Virus normal.

Andy

[LysanderUK]

We are in the middle of a form of lock-down here in the UK, and even with these measures in place the number of cases is expected to rise significantly. The US is showing a huge surge in cases currently, which is a very bad sign as this is only the early stages. Be prepared for much worse in the coming weeks, Oshkosh will pale into insignificance.

I don't like to be negative, but honestly the US unfortunately needs to wake up to some nasty realities.

[ErrolC]

We are in the middle of a form of lock-down here in the UK, and even with these measures in place the number of cases is expected to rise significantly. The US is showing a huge surge in cases currently, which is a very bad sign as this is only the early stages. Be prepared for much worse in the coming weeks, Oshkosh will pale into insignificance.

I don't like to be negative, but honestly the US unfortunately needs to wake up to some nasty realities.

Yep. Things won't approach normal until an effective vaccine is widely available (or we are very lucky and discover that nearly everyone has already developed antibodies through natural exposure as it is even easier to catch than currently thought).
I'll be very pleasantly surprised if I can use my tickets to Classic Fighters (Omaka) in Easter 2021.

New Zealand is in a fairly good situation, but we are being warned that our borders will be closed for a long time. This will do major damage to our trade-dependent economy with international tourism being a big source of income.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... -some-time

[phil65]

https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all ... dium=email

Phil

[marine air]

Okay , guys here’s the deal. The U.S. is hoping the Coronavirus wave will crest by the end of April. That’s a hope. It may be May, June, or later. The EAA spends many millions, like twenty or thirty million putting the show together. It’s the only air show they produce. A long time ago they had air shows called Sun N Fun, Copperstate, Tullahoma, and a couple more. Now it’s a one shot crap shoot.
There’s a deadline that they have before they buy the insurance policy, the security contracts, food contracts,sanitation, etc.. On a micro scale, ask anyone that has ever cancelled a wedding last minute. They lost a lot of money because the bride or groom waited too late to cancel. I am a contract pilot for a couple of the biggest music labels , and several artists in Nashville. We make 95% of our money off of concerts and other public events. Our jets have been parked since January.
A vaccine will be the long term solution for all of us to return back to normal life. They estimate it will be 15 months, although I think they will do better than that, somehow. The current model according to Dr. Birx forecasts 300,000 deaths this year alone in the U.S. The worst case is 100 times worse, or three million deaths. So , using a body count like our buddy McNamara did for the Vietnam War, we are one per cent into a most probable outcome. This is a plague of biblical proportions and the numbers double every four to five days.
I’ve been going to Oshkosh since 1976, and can’t see how it makes financial or good sense to hold this event in three months.

Last edited by marine air on Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[marine air]

Delete

Last edited by marine air on Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[phil65]

"I’ve been going to Oshkosh since 1876, and can’t see how it makes financial or good sense to hold this event in three months."

You're old and wise...

EAA still does Sun N Fun...?

Phil

[Mark Allen M]

Okay , guys here’s the deal. The U.S. is hoping the Coronavirus wave will crest by the end of April. That’s a hope. It may be May, June, or later. The EAA spends many millions, like twenty or thirty million putting the show together. It’s the only air show they produce. A long time ago the had air shows called Sun N Fun, Copperstate, Tullahoma, and a couple more. Now it’s a one shot crap shoot.
There’s a deadline that they have before they buy the insurance policy, the security contracts, food contracts, etc. on a micro scale, ask anyone that has ever cancelled a wedding last minute. They lost a lot of money because the bride or groom waited too late to cancel. I ama contract pilot for a couple of the biggest music labels , and several artists in Nashville. We make 90% of our money off of concerts and other public events. Our jets have been parked since January.
A vaccine will be the long term solution for all of us to return back to normal life. They estimate it will be 15 months, although I think they will do better than that, somehow. The current model according to Dr. Birx forecasts 300,000 deaths this year alone in the U.S. The worst case is 100 times worse, or three million deaths. So , using a body count like our buddy McNamar did for the Vietnam War, we are one per cent into a most probable outcome. This is a plague of biblical proportions and the numbers double every four to five days.
I’ve been going to Oshkosh since 1876, and can’t see how it makes financial or good sense to hold this event in three months.

CALM DOWN!!!! You're misleading people, confusing people and spooking people!!! .... The Chosen One stated all goes back to normal by Easter. Try to pay attention would ya? lol

[mdwflyer]

Guys, this is only reported cases. Does not include infected people walking around infecting others. The US infection rate is accelerating not decelerating. Everyone needs to do their part and stay away from others. Best of luck on everything.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This method has been effective:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... 9337092b56